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Ramble On

A Little Bit of Luck

The holidays seem to come upon us quicker and quicker each year, don't they? It seems like just yesterday it was the Fourth of July, and now we're right in the middle of the holiday hustle and bustle. Before we know it, the New Year will be upon us and we'll be talking about the three-year-olds and Derby prep season.

I've been noticeably light on posting over the last few weeks due to Christmas parties, travel... everything under the sun. I downloaded the Form for a couple days of Gulfstream last week, hoping to get a few plays in at some point, but never got the time to really sit down and handicap.

Below are some items of note that you probably already know about but that caught my eye as I was playing a little catch-up the last couple of days, including my take on the debut of Luck on HBO:

  • Weemissfrankie, 3rd in this year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, went off as the odds-on favorite in the Grade 1 Hollywood Starlet on Saturday, only to finish a disappointing fourth after a horrible start, and suffering a leg injury in the process.
  • Rapid Redux will go for for his 21st consecutive victory, and 19th victory in 2011, when he runs in the sixth race at Laurel Park tonight today. He will once again face off against $5,000 Starter Allowance company, this time at a mile and a sixteenth. If he wins, he will tie Citation and Roseben for the most victories in a single year. As I wrote previously, when you consider the fact that top class horses rarely run 20 times in their career, you've got to hand it to this hard-knocking gelding. [UPDATE: And he got it done; Rapid Redux held off Awesome Rhythm by a half-length to win his 21st consecutive race and his 19th race of 2011.]

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Road Trip

About the only thing to look at when one is driving across the central part of the state of Washington are the windmills leading to the Columbia River gorge.

Greetings from the Palouse, otherwise known as the southeastern corner of the state of Washington. I took a road trip across the state to catch some college football, along with a nice blast of cold and snow.  Fortunately, I was able to dig out my gloves and thermal socks before heading over to the dry side of Washington.

There isn't a whole lot of big time stakes action this weekend as most of the races are slated to take place over the Thanksgiving holiday. The lone Grade 1 on tap is the Hollywood Turf Cup where Bourbon Bay (5/2) and Sanagas (GER) (2/1) lead a filed of seven in the 12 furlong event.  Miss Match (ARG) (10/1), as she has done often this year, will once again take on the boys.

The $1 million Delta Jackpot is this Saturday, meaning after this weekend there will be two juveniles that have already earned enough in graded earnings to ensure a spot in the 2012 Kentucky Derby.  Hansen, winner of the 2011 Breeders' Cup Juvenile, was the first, and the winner of the $600,000 first place prize at Delta Downs will be the second.  Of course, the likelihood that the Delta Jackpot winner will even run in the Derby is remote. Only two winners of the Delta Jackpot have come back to run in the Kentucky Derby (Z Humor and Outta Here), and neither finished higher than 7th.

Below is a list of the winners of the Delta Jackpot and their corresponding finish in the Kentucky Derby the following year:

2010 - Gourmet Dinner (DNS)
2009 - Rule (DNS)
2008 - Big Drama (DNS)
2007 - [Dead Heat] Z Humor (14th) & Turf War (DNS)
2006 - Birdbirdistheword (DNS)
2005 - No race (Hurricane Katrina)
2004 - Texcess (DNS)
2003 - Mr Jester (DNS)
2002 - Outta Here (7th)

Bob Baffert's Drill leads a competitive field of ten for this year's Delta Jackpot, and in the process is attempting to finally break through on a conventional dirt surface.  After running impressively this summer on synthetics, Drill has failed to transfer his form over to dirt in his last two races.  He was a disappointing 10th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile but didn't get the best of trips after boring out at the start and bumping with Crusade.  He's looking for a bit of redemption on Saturday night.

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OT: College Football

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I know that many of you that frequent this site are diehard college football fans, so I thought it would be appropriate to put up a post where you could all discuss your predictions for the upcoming season.

For the record, I'm an unreformed fan of the Washington State Cougars. Born and raised in the state of Washington (but educated at a small school far away from the Pacific Northwest), I've never broken my allegiance to the Crimson and the Gray.  And that takes a lot of doing when you win only five games in three years.  (Especially after winning 10-games in 2001, 2002, and 2003, while going to the Rose Bowl and beating Texas in the Holiday Bowl...all while being a season ticket holder).  Annnnnyway, while I spend the fall pulling for my beloved Cougs to finally right the sinking ship, who will you be following and what are you hoping for this year?

So, for Keith Jackson, Edward R. Murow, Drew Bledsoe, Jack Thompson, Gary Larson (The Far Side), Paul Allen, Jason Gesser, Rueben Mayes, Bobo Brayton, Ron Cey, John Olerud, Mel Hein, Craig Ehlo (so sorry you couldn't stop Jordan), George Raveling, Mark Rypien... and even Ryan Leaf (we still love you for 1997), here is the "Washington State University Fight Song", along with "All Hail Washington State"

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Around the Backstretch: All Things Lead To Kentucky Edition

Lots of news floating around the world wide web horse racing circle, and much of it is coming out of the Commonwealth of Kentucky.

Let's first look at the items making news off the track:

FIRST AN ADW, NOW TV. KEENELAND GOING FOR WORLD DOMINATION...SORT OF
Keeneland Association and the NBC Sports Group announced Aug. 18 a partnership to broadcast "Autumn at Keeneland," over two weekends this fall beginning Oct. 7 on VERSUS and culminating with an hour-long live broadcast of Keeneland’s 75th anniversary Oct. 15 on NBC.[BloodHorse]

PICK FIVE COMES TO TURFWAY
Turfway Park plans to add the pick five wager at its upcoming fall meeting that begins September 8, a meet that also will feature a new later post time on Saturdays. [Thoroughbred Times]

MORE FROM TURFWAY!
The grade II Kentucky Cup Classic, which returns to Turfway Park in September after a one-year hiatus, will have a new distance and new name, track officials said Aug. 18. [BloodHorse]

REBEL GETS MORE MONEY; OAKLAWN COMPRESSES RACING FESTIVAL OF THE SOUTH
A $200,000 bump to the Rebel S. (G2) and a condensed four-day, nine stakes Racing Festival of the South highlight Oaklawn Park's 2012 live racing season, which kicks off January 13. In total, there will be 34 stakes races worth nearly $5.2 million during the season, beginning with the $75,000 Fifth Season S. on opening day. [Brisnet]

DON'T EXPECT FIELD SIZES TO CHANGE MUCH IN THE NEAR FUTURE
The Jockey Club is projecting a 2012 North American registered Thoroughbred foal crop of 24,700, a decline of 8.5% from the estimate of 27,000 registered foals for 2011, according to Matt Iuliano, the organization’s executive vice president and executive director. [Thoroughbred Times]

BUSINESS MIXED AT PRAIRIE MEADOWS
On-track handle at Prairie Meadows Racetrack increased by 5.7% during its 2011 Thoroughbred meeting, which concluded on August 13. However, total handle dropped 2.7% due to declining simulcast figures. [Thoroughbred Times]

GULFSTREAM BACKS OFF MEDICATION BAN FOR 2011-2012 MEETING
The 2011-2012 Gulfstream Park race meet, which begins December 3, will not include a ban on race day medications, track president Tim Ritvo told the Daily Racing Form Wednesday. [Paulick Report]

Turning to matters taking place on the track:

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Vegas/Weekend Stakes

The best "Vegas" advice I've ever recieved was to always take it easy the first night in order to not be dragging the rest of the weekend.  Sadly, I didn't follow that advice on Thursday.

Lots of big races today, especially at Arlington Park for the Million Festival.  The European invaders have grabbed morning line favoritsm in all three of the Grade 1s in Chicago - Cape Blanco, Stacelita, and Treasure Beach.  Of the three, Stacelita seems like the most likely winner. I think Cape Blanco and Treasure Beach are standouts, as well, but they may prefer just a bit more ground than the 10 panels of the Million and the Secretariat. A big question is "How will Gio Ponti do today?" Can he pull off a second win in the Million, or is he a better miler at this point?

Good luck!

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Tuesday Morning OT: A Walk Though The Sky Mall

This has absolutely nothing to do with horse racing or the Derby but...

I love Sky Mall magazine because I love gadgets and unique items that have a limited purpose or look great in a catalog and then never get touched at home.  After 22-hours of travel on Monday, and plenty of time with my thoughts and a copy of the spring 2011 Sky Mall magazine, here's an off-topic post on my Sky Mall picks: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly.

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Easter Sunday Quick Thoughts

I hope everyone is having themselves a nice Easter.  I've been traveling around Yorkshire the past couple of days and will be heading back down to London early next week for my final few days in England.  I'll be attending Ascot on Wednesday and the Guineas Festival on Saturday and Sunday.

A few thoughts on this Sunday evening...or morning/afternoon...depending on where you are at:

  • Silver Medallion comes up with a clunker in the Coolmore Lexington, finishing fourth of six and leaving himself short on graded earning for this year's Derby; he'll need some defections to get into the top 20. 

    I'll update the 2011 Triple Crown file in the next day or so but the results of the Lexington are pretty irrelevant in terms of the Derby.
  • The Lexington winner, Derby Kitten, is another of those Ken and Sarah Ramsey Kitten's Joy runners that seems to love both turf and synthetic surfaces.
  • Churchill Downs opens for racing this coming Saturday and will feature the G3-Derby Trial...which really isn't a trial for the Derby. 
  • The Rainbow Six at Gulfstream paid out $3,279.26 on second to last day of the meet and the final day for the carryover that kept carrying over day after day.  The final Rainbow Six pool checked in at a hair under $3.6 million.  Not bad for a $0.10 minimum bet.
  • Todd Pletcher's Cal Nation tried stakes company in yesterday's G2-Jerome at Aqueduct and completely bombed, finishing last in a field of eight.  I'm not sure what happened to this colt, but after a nice debut win at Gulfstream he's really struggled.  Perhaps it's a bit of too much, too fast.

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Made it to London...can't wait to make a bet

ASCOT, ENGLAND - JUNE 18:  Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh arrive on the 4th day of Royal Ascot at Ascot racecourse on June 18, 2010 in Ascot, England  (Photo by Alan Crowhurst/ Getty Images)

A couple of quick thoughts this Wednesday evening as I settle into my surrounding here in England:

  • After taking the Heathrow Express in to central London and arriving at Paddington Station, I walked by a Landsbroke betting shop within about 10 minutes of exiting the train.  Is it wrong that I wanted to wander in and put something down on some random event?  If they were already taking wagers on the Queen's hat color on the first day of Royal Ascot I would be all over that.  Her Majesty hasn't gone with yellow on Ladies' Day in a while ...that's got to be the winner this year.
  • I log on to DRF.com and the first thing I read is that Richard Dutrow has been denied a racing license by the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission. No word on how long this denial will last.
  • I checked out the entries to Friday's Apple Blossom this evening and I was disappointed to see only a five horse field.  Havre de Grace, Switch and Miss Match (ARG) are quality runners, but it would have been nice to see a more robust number of entries.
  • On the opposite end of the Grade 1 Stakes scale are the two G1s scheduled for Keeneland this Thursday and Friday.  Both the Makers Mark Mile and the Vinery Madison look like highly competitive fields on paper.

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Track Management

Frankel_guineas4_small Matt Gardner

Handicappers

Standing_at_the_station_small JP Fanshawe

Wm-w-feathers1_small TFTribe

Rufwater_small Jared L. Christopher