Champion juvenile Hansen, Breeders' Cup runner-up Union Rags, and almost 400 other three-year-old were among the horses nominated to the 2012 Triple Crown, a 9.1% increase from 2011. Only 11 horses have ever won the Triple Crown, the last occurring in 1978 when Affirmed defeated his rival Alydar in all three races. The 33-year drought without a Triple Crown winner is the longest in history.

Not only has the Triple Crown eluded horses for the past three decades, but it's become in the last few years it's become rare that a horse even wins more than one leg of the series. Since Big Brown was defeated in the Belmont Stakes there have been ten different winners of the ten Triple Crown races. The last time we saw a similar stretch was between 1924 to 1929, when there were 18 different winners over 18 Triple Crown races. Gallant Fox broke the streak by winning the Triple Crown in 1930.

Previous Triple Crown winners:

Sir Barton - 1919
Gallant Fox - 1930
Omaha - 1935
War Admiral - 1937
Whirlaway - 1941
Count Fleet - 1942
Assault - 1946
Citation - 1948
Secretariat - 1973
Seattle Slew - 1977
Affirmed - 1978

The 2012 Triple Crown will take place over a period of five weeks, beginning with the Kentucky Derby on May 5th, continuing on with the Preakness on May 19th, and concluding with the Test of Champions, the Belmont Stakes, on June 11th.

Complete 2012 Triple Crown Nominations List

A quick look around the world of horse racing following Animal Kingdom's win in Saturday's Kentucky Derby.

• Arkansas Derby winner Archarcharch had a successful surgery to repair the condylar fracture to his left front leg on Sunday but his connections announced that he will not race again.  Jockey Jon Court does not know when the injury occurred, but he stated that Archarcharch was bumped coming out of the gate and then was bumped again as he neared the wire. 
• Comma to the Top will have surgery to remove a bone chip from his left front ankle and should be back in training in 8 to 12 weeks.
• There are two excellent pieces at DRF.com from Andrew Beyer on Animal Kingdom's trainer, Graham Motion. Particularly refreshing is this quote from Beyer:
  
  "Derby-winning trainer Rick Dutrow has a record of infractions as long as his arm. But in the nearly 8,000 starts that make up his career, Motion has never been cited for a medication infraction. Not one."
  
  Motion's 'old school' approach leads to Derby, and
  Motion's Kentucky Derby win strikes a blow for honesty
• Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom was 31/1 in Pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager.  He went off at odds of 20/1 in the Derby.  He was part of the field in Pool 1 (2/1) and Pool 2 (7/2), both odds far below what the tote board offered on Saturday.
• Nehro is expected to skip the Preakness in order to prepare for the Belmont on June 11^th.
• With the Preakness over a week and a half away it will be a bit of a quieter week on the stakes front.  Below is the graded stakes scheduled for this coming weekend:
  
  Grade 2 Peter Pan (Belmont)
  Grade 2 Jim Murray Handicap (Hollywood)
  Grade 3 Hendrie Stakes (Woodbine)
• Soldat is expected to return to racing on the turf, according to Neal McLaughlin.
• Churchill Downs is considering revising the Derby starters policy to allow for alternate entries.  This year, since Uncle Mo wasn't scratched until after the draw, Sway Away (the #21 horse on the graded earnings list) wasn't able to get into the starting gate.  Had he been an AE, he would have.
• While handle remains down across the country, Derby business is still excellent.  Churchill Downs set an attendance record on Saturday and saw an increase in handle for the entire card.

I received an email from one of our readers the other day (Swale), curious as to the best times by the three-year-old Derby contenders this winter/spring at distances of a mile or greater.  While speed figures provide us with a nice way to compare performances of horses from race-to-race and track-to-track, sometimes its helpful to look at raw times to get a clue as to how the figure makers viewed different races, or just to compare at a high level.

(As a side note: If there is anything you're ever interested in seeing posted on the site, just drop me a line and I'll try to get something up about it.  I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to oblige, but I'll certainly try.)

I've attached an Excel file below that summarizes the winning times since last fall for many of the Triple Crown nominated horses.  I didn't include every winning time due to the fact that some are not relevant.  The races I included are:

-Winning races,
-Non-maiden,
-Non-state bred,
-At one mile, or longer,
-On the main track (this included races over synthetic surfaces).

Stated another way: no clockings from turf races, maidens, sprints, state-bred, or non-winning races were included.  

2011 Kentucky Derby - Raw Times

I left blank the fractional splits for each horse as I am going to go back through the Formulator charts and pull the individual splits for each winner.  That will take a bit of extra time but should also give some additional clues about the conditions under which these times occurred.  Additionally, I'm going to add two extra columns for the Beyer and Bris speed figures at a later time, something that should illustrate which times took place on a "slow" or "fast" surface, at least according to the figure makers.

While raw times are a function of the relative speed of a specific track, I think it's quite interesting as to the horses that clocked the fastest times at each distance.

1 Mile: Uncle Mo
1 Mile + 70yds: Rescind The Trade
1 1/16 Miles: Uncle Mo
1 1/8 Miles: Anthony's Cross

Uncle Mo doesn't surprise us as he was clearly the fastest juvenile in the crop last fall, and Anthony's Cross has the fastest 9 furlong time so far this spring, and that's not really a shocker considering the autobahn at Santa Anita. 

The official 2011 Kentucky Derby Future Wager ended last weekend with "the field" edging out Uncle Mo as the betting favorite (2/1 to 7/2) in Pool 1.  The end of the first round of wagering doesn't mean that you can't still get a piece of a Derby horse prior to Pool 2 as Las Vegas has you covered.  Below are the top 20 betting interests offered at the Wynn Las Vegas (via Brisnet.com).

I've also attached a link to the current 2011 Triple Crown file with prep race results, current graded earnings and Vegas odds.

2011 Triple Crown

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We're a little less than 11 weeks out from the 2011 Kentucky Derby, and things are starting to pick up steam.  While we are still awaiting the first starts for several of this year's contenders (Uncle Mo, To Honor and Serve, Astrology), there is plenty of news to keep us busy.  Below are a few thoughts on some of the recent news concerning contenders for the 2011 Kentucky Derby.

-Yesterday the connections of Uncle Mo confirmed that the colt's first start of 2011 would be in the $100,000 Timely Writer, a one-turn mile/listed stakes race at Gulfstream Park on March 12^th.

I don't know if there's been a more underwhelming start to a three-year-old campaign by the winter Derby favorite in a long time.  And while time will tell as to whether this provides Uncle Mo with the best chance to win the Derby, I find it difficult to imagine that this colt will have the foundation to win the hardest race in America off of two preps, one of which will be a glorified workout.  Of course, stranger things have happened.

Uncle Mo opting for the Timely Writer instead of the Tampa Bay Derby is a direct result of the graded earnings requirements for the Derby and the huge purse of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.  Since graded earnings as a two-year-old are equal to those earned as a three-year-old, there is almost no incentive for a horse that wins at the Breeders' Cup to go after anything significant in the spring.

I believe another factor at play with this decision is the ever present breeding dollars.  Uncle Mo's breeding value shot up like a cannon following his Breeders' Cup win, and it's generally the case that the higher a colt's breeding value, the softer his racing schedule.  Connections are so scared of an injury that would cost money that the horse is treated like a piece of porcelain.  Why run him at Tampa where he'll face a tough field and could (gasp!) possibly lose?

About the only thing that interests me with the Timely Writer is what N1Y horses Gulfstream will be able to scrounge up to fill out the field. 

-Nick Zito was contemplating sending Holy Bull winner Dialed In to the Timely Writer but it appears that will no longer be the case after the race was shortened from a two-turn 9 furlongs to a one-turn mile, according to a piece at DRF.com the other day.  With the Fountain of Youth out of the question it would seem that Dialed In is either destined for some kind of glorified allowance race or, possibly, shipping to somewhere like Aqueduct for the Gotham.  Zito wants Dialed In to run in a two-turn race.

-Bob Bafffert announced that The Factor, the impressive winner of the San Vicente last Sunday, will go to the Sunland Derby for his next start.  He might be able to get the 9 panels at Sunland but I've got serious reservations that this colt will be as good going two-turns as he is going one.  Baffert was quoted after the San Vicente as saying that you can't really try and rate this colt, you just have to let him run.  That's a great attribute in a sprinter but not so much in a horse trying to get a route of ground.

-In what may be the oddest bit of news on the road to the 2011 Kentucky Derby, French-trained Mont Pleato is being pointed towards the first Saturday in May by his trainer Christophe Ferland.

Mont Pelato is a son of Forest Danger out of an Unbridled's Song mare (Zada Rae), a pedigree that doesn't really scream "Classic distance".  However, he began his career with back-to-back wins over Deauville's Fibersand track at a mile and three-sixteenths, so it would appear that he can get a route of ground, if the conditions are right.  And that's the big "if" in this scenario since races in America are run much differently than those in Europe.  Furthermore, if his trainer's plans continue as they desire, Mont Pelato would be making his first every start on dirt in the Derby.  

The 2011 Triple Crown Nominations were announced this evening with 364 colts, geldings and fillies on the list.  Bernardini leads all sires on the list with 18 of his sons nominated.

You can find the complete list of Triple Crown nominations at the linked file below.  The list is under the tab "Nominations".

2011 Triple Crown Prep Races

As the prep races for this year's Kentucky Derby begin to pick up steam, so does the future wagering in Vegas.  The Wynn Casino updated their future book odds for the 2011 Kentucky Derby following the Holy Bull.  You can view the complete Wynn lines in the document below:

Wynn KyDerby Future Odds

The Daily Racing Form has recently added a graded stakes earnings tracker to it's Kentucky Derby page.  

A quick rundown of the current Derby book Top 20:

A few notes below the jump...

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Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager won't open for several weeks but some Vegas casinos have offered future bets on the Derby since before the Breeders' Cup.  Below the jump you will find a list of the open/current future book odds for a selection of 2011 Kentucky Derby challengers.  You can find the complete Kentucky Derby Future Odds, as offered by the Wynn Las Vegas, at this link: 2011 Kentucky Derby Vegas Future Odds (via Brisnet.com).

A few of thoughts on the odds:

- I mentioned Tapizar as a horse I liked for a future wager back in December, a thought that is apparently not alone given the slashing of his future odds 60/1 to 8/1.  The December 14^th odds were nice.  The current odds... not so much.

- Dialed In, who will make his three-year-old debut this Sunday in the Holy Bull, saw his odds drop from 40/1 to 25/1.  Now is the time to act on this colt if you're looking to get a piece of him for the Derby.  If he were to win on Sunday his odds will likely get cut in half.  25/1 isn't as nice as 40/1 but I'm surprised it's not a bit worse.

- Uncle Mo is obviously seeing a decent amount of money comes his way as his odds dropped from 6/1 to 4/1, and while 4/1 is probably higher than you'll get on Uncle Mo in the Derby (assuming he makes it there and has a relatively successful prep season) those odds are way too short given the risk associated with betting on a horse this far out. 

- The last time I posted this list I didn't even look up Soldat's odds.  He now sits at 40/1.

- A relative newcomer to the list is Washington's Rules, a son or Roman Ruler out of a Silver Charm mare (Petite Charme).  Washington's Rules broke his maiden last Saturday in the fifth race at Gulfstream Park in a off-the-turf one mile MSW and, visually, it was a very, very nice performance.   However, the race came over a "Good" track and a field of horses that were pointed to a race on the lawn.  And while he displayed an off-the-pace style at Gulfstream (something he didn't show in his debut at Saratgoa in August) it's hard to tell whether that's his true running style or a result of the surface condition.  In short, he's a horse to keep an eye on but one with a bunch of questions marks. 

Wasington's Rules sits at 85/1 on the future board.  Stay Thirsty, the horse that beat Washington's Rules in his debut at Saratoga, is currently at 40/1.

An additional note on the maiden race at Satartoga back on August 14^th won by Stay Thirsty: with Washington's Rules winning on the 22^nd that makes two starters from that race to win at next asking.  Heisman, who finished 6^th to Stay Thirsty at Saratoga, won next out at Belmont in mid-September.  Additionally, 4th place Orsonian and 8^th place Brock have yet to make their next starts following that race.

-Frankel at 75/1.  Oooookay. 

The only reason I can see why the Wynn is offering odds on Frankel (England's champion two-year-old for 2010) is because somebody asked for it.  There is a zero percent chance that his connections would even think about running in the Derby.  Frankel is currently listed as the betting favorite by English bookmakers for the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket in April (which occurs one week before the Derby and which I will have the pleasure of attending this year); he's also considered a favorite for the Epsom Derby. 

While Derby future bets are high-risk, low probability wagers, a bet on Frankel to win the 2011 Kentucky Derby is akin to flushing your money down the toilet. 

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