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2008 Breeders' Cup: Post Draw

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The Breeders' Cup will draw for post positions at 1pm Pacific live on TVG. The results of the draw, along with some additional commentary, will appear below.

The live feed on TVG quickly ran through the morning line odds on the last four races drawn. Curlin was set at 7/5 with Zenyatta at 3/5, and I really can't argue with either of those numbers as a starting point. I have Curlin pegged at Even, and I think his odds will end up right about there come post time.

Soldier of Fortune (7/2) was made the morning line favorite in the Turf, another "no brainer".

The only shock in terms of the morning lines was in the Classic, with Raven's Pass set at 8/1, lower odds than Duke of Marmalade, who I consider to be a better shot to win at a mile and a quarter. Raven's Pass is certainly a talented colt, and his pedigree (at least on the bottom) suggests a mile and a quarter won't be a problem, but I'd still peg him at higher odds to win than Duke of Marmalade.

$1,000,000 Filly and Mare Sprint

1 Magnificience
2 Indyanne
3 Intangaroo
4 Lady Sprinter
5 Indian Blessing
6 Zaftig
7 Dream Rush
8 Tiz Elemental
9 Dearest Trickski
10 Miraculous Miss
11 Jazzy
12 Ventura
13 Tizzy's Tune
14 La Tee

-According to Brisnet's track bias statistics, of the fourteen seven furlong races this season at Oak Tree, most of the winners have come from the 4-7 post position. The worst spots have been the rail and outside the 8 hole. Obviously, Indian Blessing drew into a decent position.

$1,000,000 Juvenile Fillies Turf

1 April Pride
2 Laragh
3 Maram
4 C Karma
5 Emmy Darling
6 Freedom Rings
7 Consequence
8 Sugar Mom
9 Renda
10 Beyond Our Reach
11 Saucey Evening
12 Heart Shaped
AE Atka
AE Internallyflawless

-Seventeen races at a mile on the grass this meet, and outside the 3 hole has been the place be. It's also smart to be upfront, as 35% of the winners have gone gate-to-wire.

The speed-of-the-speed in this race is Laragh, but she drew one of the worst post positions, statistically speaking. However,with the absence of other pure speed fillies in this race, she might be just fine.

Grade 1, $2,000,000 Juvenile Fillies

1 Evita Argentina
2 Persistently
3 Black Magic Mama
4 Sky Diva
5 Be Smart
6 Van Lear Rose
7 Dave's Revenge
8 C.S. Silk
9 Palacio de Amor
10 Stardom Bound
11 Pursuit of Glory
12 Dream Empress
13 Doremifasollatido

-Mile and a sixteenth races on the main track have seen very few wire-to-wire winners this meet (12%), but the inside post positions have been pretty favorable. Overall, there doesn't appear to be any horrible gate spots at this distance.

$500,000 Marathon

1 Church Service
2 Add Heat
3 Delightful Kiss
4 Sixties Icon
5 Muhannak
6 Zappa
7 Big Booster
8 Cedar Mountain
9 Booyah

$1,000,000 Turf Sprint

1 Heros Reward
2 Fleeting Spirit
3 True to Tradition
4 Only Answer
5 Salute the Count
6 Storm Treasure
7 Rouse the Cat
8 Diabolical
9 Desert Code
10 California Flag
11 Idiot Proof
12 One Union
13 Get Funky
14 Mr. Nightlinger

$1,000,000 Dirt Mile

1 Lewis Michael
2 Surf Cat
3 Slew's Tizzy
4 Mast Track
5 Two Step Salsa
6 Pyro
7 Albertus Maximus
8 Well Armed
9 Slew's Tiznow
10 Rebellion
11 My Pal Charlie
12 Lord Admiral

-Lord Admiral and My Pal Charlie draw to the outside, which is not where you want to be with this race starting so close to the first turn. Outside posts in and of themselves aren't death at this distance, but if you've got a speed horse, and a bunch of speed is drawn inside you, it just makes things a lot more complicated.

The post draw shouldn't be that much of a problem for Lord Admiral, as he doesn't display a lot of early speed. The same cannot be said for My Pal Charlie, who will have to gun it if he doesn't want to get hung out wide into the clubhouse turn.

Grade 1, $2,000,000 Mile

1 Shakis
2 Kip Deville
3 Precious Kitten
4 Goldikova
5 Daytona
6 Awesome Gem
7 U S Ranger
8 Bold Chieftain
9 War Monger
10 Thorn Song
11 Whatsthescript

-Not a great spot for the defending champ, Kip Deville. He had the perfect trip at Monmouth, but he'll likely get something a little rougher at Santa Anita.

Grade 1, $2,000,000 Juvenile

1 Munnings
2 Gallant Son
3 Terrain
4 Square Eddie
5 Azul Leon
6 Silent Valor
7 Elusive Bluff
8 Street Hero
9 Mine That Bird
10 Pioneerof the Nile
11 Midshipman
12 Bushranger
13 West Side Bernie

-Gallant Son, the two year-old champion at Emerald Downs this season, draws in at the #2 hole. It's obviously a tough task jumping from an EMD stakes race to a Grade 1 Breeders' Cup race, an he'll need a lot of luck to finish in the money. However, it's still nice to see a local horse make an appearance, just like Smarty Deb at Monmouth last year.

A nice article ran in The Seattle Times this morning about Gallant Son and his connections.

$1,000,000 Juvenile Turf

1 Ninth Client
2 City Style
3 Westphalia
4 Donativum
5 Relatively Ready
6 Vaquero
7 Coronet of a Baron
8 Paddy the Pro
9 Orthodox
10 Skipadate
11 Bittel Road
12 Grand Adventure
AE Mark S the Cooler

Grade 1, $2,000,000 Sprint

1 Cost of Freedom
2 Street Boss
3 Fabulous Strike
4 Midnight Lute
5 First Defence
6 Black Seventeen
7 In Summation
8 Sing Baby Sing
9 Fatal Bullet

-Unlike the F&M Sprint, the outside posts have been the place to be, and wire-to-wire types only make up 11% of the winners at this distance in 46 races at the meet. Midnight Lute fits the profile in terms of running style, but he's certainly a question mark on the synthetics. The same cannot be said for In Summation, a horse that really seems to like the fake stuff. His draw and running style certainly fit the profile of a winner at OSA at this distance. We'll see if he's got enough to get it done.

Grade 1, $2,000,000, F&M Turf

1 Sealy Hill
2 Vacare
3 Forever Together
4 Visit
5 Wait a While
6 Dynaforce
7 Mauralakana
8 Halfway to Heaven
9 Folk Opera
10 Pure Clan

Grade 1, $2,000,000 Ladies' Classic

1 Zenyatta
2 Hystericalady
3 Cocoa Beach
4 Music Note
5 Carriage Trail
6 Ginger Punch
7 Santa Teresita
8 Bear Now

-Zenyatta draws the rail, which should be no problem for her given her lack of early speed.

Grade 1, $3,000,000 Turf

1 Better Talk Now
2 Red Rocks
3 Grand Couturier
4 Soldier of Fortune
5 Winchester
6 Dancing Forever
7 Red Rock Canyon
8 Spring House
9 Conduit
10 Out of Control
11 Eagle Mountain

Grade 1, $5,000,000 Classic

1 Go Between
2 Casino Drive
3 Tiago
4 Duke of Marmalade
5 Henrythenavigator
6 Smooth Air
7 Student Council
8 Raven's Pass
9 Curlin
10 Fairbanks
11 Colonel John
12 Champs Elysees

-Casino Drive gets stuck down on the inside. Not a horrible spot, but he's likely to get pinched at some point during the race.