Mini P6 Carryover at Hollywood

Following the Pick Six carryover at Hollywood today where the final pool came in above $900,000 with the $117,000 from Monday. The opening two legs of the Pick Six saw You Can Dream win at 2-1 odds followed by Recess at 3/2. Both horses were trained by Doug O'Neill and ridden by Rafael Bejarano. Not much of a start if you're hoping for a big carryover into Thursday and looking at the rest of the card there only seems to be a couple of spots where a big price looks likely: race 6 (a nine horse turf sprint) and race 8 (a twelve horse $25K Maiden Claimer at a mile and a sixteenth).

UPDATED 2:40 PM:

Photo finish in the third leg but it came down between the two favorites: 4-Victory Dash and 6-Dinner With Nikki C. The #6 ended up the winner which made it three in a row for Rafael Bejarano and completed a very chalky first three legs of the Pick 6.

If you played an all Bejarano Pick 6 you are now halfway home to glory.

UPDATED 3:14 PM:

Doug O'Neill picks up his third winner of the Pick Six sequence but the Rafael Bejarano win streak is put to an end with Quoted's victory in the sixth race. Quoted went off at 9/2 which will add a little bit of a price to the sequence (and I stress "little") but nothing to suggest that this Pick Six won't be hit this afternoon.

UPDATED 3:25 PM:

A brief thought on this on-going Pick Six sequence at Hollywood and why these multi-race exotics can be challenging even with relatively straight forward races. This Hollywood Pick Six has been exceptionally chalky during the first four legs and, looking over the card, it didn't appear to be a tremendously challenging sequence with one exception, the last race of the day. Unlike the other five races, the final race of the sequence looks very difficult on paper with what will probably be a tepid favorite and several horses that appear to have little chance to win. Some would say that makes the race easy; throw out the longshots and just take the four or five midshots. But this is exactly this type of race that is likely to produce a big price – a race with a degree of chaos due to the weak nature of the field. Throw in the fact that it's the last leg, which means that a lot of players are attacking this race last and trying to cover only as much as their bankroll allows, and the problem becomes clear: how do you get decent coverage?

It sometimes makes sense to build a ticket for a Pick Six or a Pick 4 by looking at the races individually instead of in sequence. It you start with the first leg and move through each in succession there is the possibility that when you get to the final race you'll think "I can't go deep in this race because I've already spread so much in the early legs." Instead, I think it makes more sense to break down each race individually without any consideration to the order and then think of the best way to optimize ticket construction. Heck, start with the last race then got to the 2^nd, 3^rd, 5^th, etc. Whatever method is applied the thinking remains the same: isolate the contenders instead of trying to figure out how many horses you can use and still fit your budget.

UPDATED 3:42 PM:

Bejarano rolls to his fourth win of the sequence and Usurp easily wins the 7^th race at 8/5. The only question left for the day is how much will the Pick Six pay?

UPDATED 3:53 PM:

Pick Six Will Pays

Got to say that I'm surprised at those Will Pays considering how chalky this sequence has been; you're getting $1,300 and $1,600 to the favorites and a good chunk to any of the bombs. I've always been of the opinion that a bomb at the end of the sequence will key a larger payday than a bomb at the beginning due to the mere fact that players will "load up" early in order to just stay alive to the action.

UPDATED 4:05 PM:

Ignore the Will Pay chart since the 4 is a late scratch which renders my whole chart irrelevant. Thanks. We'll see what it pays when it's over.

UPDATED 4:18 PM:

The chalk finished off this sequence keying a $1,364 payout to anyone with six-for-six. A fairly uneventful Pick Six that paid a little more than I expected given the fact that only one horse paid more than $10.