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Wednesday Morning Quick Hits - P6 Carryover & Derby Futures

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A couple of thoughts from around the world of horse racing on this Wednesday morning:

Pick Six Carryover

There is a $111,916 Pick Six carryover at Aqueduct today as the Inner Dirt meet rolls on.  A couple of those tricky New York state-bred conditions are littered through the sequence today with the Pick Six kicking off with, what do you know, a Maiden Claimer.  

Race

Condition

Surface

Distance

Field

4

$35K MdClm, 3yo F

Inner Dirt

6f

7

5

N2X/OC $25K, NY 4up

Inner Dirt

6f

9

6

$25k Clm N2L, 4up F

Inner Dirt

6f

9

7

$10K Clm N3L, 4up F

Inner Dirt

1m

9

8

Alw N1X, 4up

Inner Dirt

6f

10

9

MdSpWt,  NY 4up F

Inner Dirt

1m

10

 

Kentucky Derby Futures

Dan Illman's blog over at the Daily Racing Form posted a list of the Kentucky Derby Future Odds currently offered by Lucky's Race and Sports Book in Las Vegas.  (Ky. Derby Futures).  Derby futures are certainly an extremely risky bet since many of these colts won't even make it to the starting gate in Louisville.  But at the same time, a future bet presents a nice opportunity to the horseplayer willing to take a chance on a horse they love at big, big odds.  I know of a handicapper that was able to grab a 100/1 future bet on Big Brown in Las Vegas the fall before the Kentucky Derby.  Needless to say, he was sitting mighty pretty come the first Saturday in May that year.

When I'm looking at future bets on the Derby I'm looking for big odds since I'm not just betting on whether the horse can win (a difficult proposition in its own right) but I'm also betting on whether the horse will even make the starting gate at Churchill Downs.  We are still over three months away from the Derby, so for me 10/1 and 20/1 generally won't cut it.  50/1 and higher is much more attractive.

Some notes from those future odds:

  • Champion Two Year Old colt, Lookin At Lucky, is the current future favorite at 10/1.  With the likely surface questions surrounding this colt I think 10/1 is a horrible number for a future bet.  We don't even know if this colt wants to run on dirt yet.  I'll pass on that one.
  • My current Derby favorite (if you can really have one in late January), is Buddy's Saint, who sits at 18/1 in the future odds.  That number is probably a lot higher than what I'll get in May but not enough to take the plunge.
  • Want some decent value on a future wager?  What about Noble's Promise?  Take a look at this colts past performances and he really doesn't seem that far behind Lookin At Lucky.  Yet in the future odds he currently sits at 50/1.  Sure, he's got some similar questions as to whether he can run and win on dirt but you're receiving much better value for a very similar horse.  If you like Lookin At Lucky at 10/1 I don't see how you can't LOVE Noble's Promise at 50/1?
  • There is a very interesting horse on this futures list that will be running in the G3-Lecomte this Saturday at Fair Grounds, specifically Maximus Ruler.  This colt put in a couple of really nice performances in both of his starts at Churchill Downs last fall, registering two Beyers in the 80s in the process.  If he's able to score a win in New Orleans on Saturday his stock will shoot up in the very early Derby picture.  Maximus Ruler currently sits at 125/1 on the futures list.
  • Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner, Vale of York (IRE), currently sits at 20/1 on this futures list.  Let me just say...what the hell?  20/1?  Who is putting money on this horse and why?  Sure, he won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, but that was on a synthetic track.  Throw in the fact that he's a European horse that was bred to run on the grass and I just don't see 20/1.  I'm not saying Vale of York can't win the Derby but a 20/1 future bet on this horse is just not a good wager, in my opinion.  If he were to run in the Derby you'd probably get 20/1 or higher on him at the track on the day of the race.
  • A lot of people have apparently decided to toss some money in the direction of Jackson Bend, a colt that opened at 75/1 and is now at 15/1.  This colt swept the Florida Stallion stakes for juveniles last fall at Calder and sports a nice and clean 6-5-1-0 lifetime record.  He needs to prove himself against a little higher caliber of competition before I'd jump on the bandwagon but he does look like a nice colt.  Don't know if he's 15/1 nice, though.
  • D'Funnybone, a D'wildcat colt out of a Woodman mare, came into the Breeders' Cup Juvenile sporting a solid 4-3-1-0 record that included wins in the G2-Saratoga Special and the G2-Futurity Stakes.  He was sent off at 6/1 at the Breeders' Cup and proceeded to lose by 27 1/2 lengths.  I, however, think there is a lot of value in this colt, even though I'm not yet convinced that he'll want a mile and a quarter.  The key factor for me when assessing D'Funnybone's race record is the fact that he's never run a bad race on conventional dirt; his only flop was the Breeders' Cup and I think it's possible he just didn't want to have anything to do with the plastic.  D'Funnybone's odds on the future list? Currently 75/1.  Not bad at all.