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Saturday Stakes Open Thread

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This will be the catch-all thread for today's racing action.  I'll be mainly focused on the events in Florida and Louisiana today, but feel free to comment about any racing taking place today.  There's no word yet on whether Santa Anita was able to drain the tub. (UPDATED: SA has announced that they will race today.)

I'll try to post any significant changes/scratches in the comments, or you use can use one of the links in the left sidebar to get the info directly from the track.

I've decided to take the plunge on a Pick 4 ticket at the Fair Grounds today, specifically the sequence featuring races 7 -10.  My ticket is very skinny as I'm going with a fairly aggressive single in the 2nd leg.  Here's the basic layout of the ticket:

1 / 3 / 7 with 4 with 10 / 3 with 1 / 11 / 2
Base bet: $1
Total cost: $18

A couple of thoughts on my selections:

 

  • The first leg appears pretty straightforward, with General Quarters, Friesen Fire and Good and Lucky standing out from the rest of the field.  I hate to go three deep just to get a low priced horse (which is what is going to probably happen here) but I'm not comfortable leaving any of those three off my ticket.
  • The 2nd leg will probably make me or break me in this sequence as I've singled 4-Bella Medaglia, a 6/1 shot on the morning line.  The outside filly, 10-Quiet Temper, is going to take a ton of cash after beating my choice last time out.  Two factors, however, led me to believe that Bella Medaglia can turn the tables today.  First, there is a little more pace in the field than in that last race when Quiet Temper ran off and hid from the field.  She'll have to work a little harder to go gate to wire.  Second, there is some speed to her inside and it's possible that Quiet Temper could get hung wide going into that first turn.  

    When I combined the probability of additional pace along with the potential trip, I felt that Bella Medaglia has a nice chance at an upset.
  • If I'm lucky enough to get past the 2nd leg I then have to deal with a 5 1/2 furlong turf sprint with a monster field of twelve.  Again I decided to keep things skinny and only went with two selections in here: 3-Goldilox and 10-Coy Cat.

    Coy Cat is a logical standout in this spot as she's 3-for-3 over the Fair Grounds turf course and 6-3-0-0 overall in turf sprints. In other words, she loves to win turf sprints over this course.  I love the horse for course angle when I'm dealing with specialty events like 5 1/2 furlong sprints.

    Goldilox is the price play in this spot, with her 20/1 odds on the morning line.  Like Coy Cat, Goldilox has done well in turf sprints at the Fair Grounds (3-1-1-0) and she's cutting back in distance after flopping in a 1 1/16 mile turf event on January 2nd.  I'm throwing that race out as I think it was purely a race to get some back into this filly before this stakes event.
  • The final leg of the sequence is the feature race on the card, the G3-Lecomte.  I already previewed that race yesterday so I'll just reiterate what I said then: I'm taking 1-Maximus Ruler, 2-Turf Melody, and 11-Ron the Greek to finish off the sequence.