2010 Breeders' Cup: The Arc and the Turf

While we are waiting on the connections of 2010 Arc winner Workforce (GB) to decide on whether or not they will enter the Breeders' Cup Turf, I decided to take a quick look back at how Arc runners have fared at the Breeders' Cup in past years. 

The first chart below lists every Arc winner since 1983 and how they fared at the Breeders' Cup (if they entered), along with their post-time odds.

Year	Winner	BC Race	Result	Odds
2010	Workforce	TBD
2009	Sea the Stars
2008	Zarkava
2007	Dylan Thomas	07 Turf	5th(8)	0.90
2006	Rail Link
2005	Hurricane Run	06 Turf	6th (11)	2.90
2004	Bago	05 Turf	4th (13)	4.50
2003	Dalakhani
2002	Marienbard
2001	Sakhee	01 Classic	2nd (13)	4.80
2000	Sinndar
1999	Montjeu	00 Turf	7th (13)	3.20
1998	Sagamix
1997	Peintre Celebre
1996	Helissio
1995	Lammtarra
1994	Carnegie	95 Turf	3rd (13)	3.75
1993	Urban Sea
1992	Subotica	92 Turf	5th (10)	7.50
1991	Suave Dancer
1990	Saumarez	90 Turf	5th (11)	2.70
1989	Carroll House
1988	Tony Bin
1987	Trempolino	87 Turf	2nd (14)	2.60
1986	Dancing Brave	86 Turf	4th (9)	0.50
1985	Rainbow Quest
1984	Sagace
1983	All Along	84 Turf	2nd (11)	3.20

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Since the inaugural Breeders' Cup in 1984, eleven previous winners of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe have shipped to North America to try their hand in either the Turf or the Classic, with none winning any of those ten races. 

Of the ten Arc winners to run at the Breeders' Cup, only six of them ran at the Cup in the same year in which they won the Arc (Dylan Thomas - 2007, Sakhee - 2001, Subotica - 1992, Saumarez - 1990, Trempolino - 1987, Dancing Brave - 1986).

Why have we witnessed such futility from Arc winners shipping over to the Breeders' Cup?  I think the answer centers around a couple of key factors:

1. The Arc is the singular goal for top level Classic horses in France. 

A horse that wins the Epsom Derby in June in impressive fashion is immediately hailed as a top contender for the Arc, not the Breeders' Cup.  The Arc is the primary goal with the Breeders' Cup secondary, should the horse exit the Arc in good physical condition.  Since the Breeders' Cup Turf is not the primary goal it is likely that Arc winners have already fired their "big race" by the time they get to North America.

2. The Arc is one of the most taxing and strenuous races in the world.

In order to win the Arc a horse must generally put forth a top class effort.  And while the relative strength of Arc fields fluctuates from year to year, the demands that the race requires from winners remain the same.  The Breeders' Cup Turf is run at the same distance as the Arc and over the same type of surface but the similarities between the two races pretty much ends at that point.  The Arc course at Longchamp is a long, undulating course with big, sweeping turns, while the Breeders' Cup is generally run on a tight, three-turn turf course without any a single rise or declinein elevation (except at Santa Anita on the downhill and at Woodbine). 

Bot the Turf and the Arc are difficult races to win but the physical requirements to win each race are very different from one another.

While an Arc winner has never come back to win a Breeders' Cup race, the race itself it is still a key "prep" in terms of producing winners.  Seven times in Breeders' Cup history a horse that ran in the Arc came back to win the Turf in the same year, with many of the winners finishing 3^rd or 4^th at Longchamp before shipping to North America. 

The chart below contains a list of every winner of the Turf along with the result of their final race before the Breeders' Cup.

Year	Winner	Last Track	Race	Result
2009	Conduit (IRE)	LONG (FR)	G1-Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe	4th
2008	Conduit (IRE)	DON (GB)	G1-St. Leger Stakes	1st
2007	English Channel	BEL	G1-Turf Classic	1st
2006	Red Rocks (IRE)	YORK (GB)	G1-St. Leger Stakes	3rd
2005	Shirocco (GER)	LONG (FR)	G1-Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe	4th
2004	Better Talk Now	BEL	G1-Man O'War	4th
2003	High Chaparral (IRE)	LONG (FR)	G1-Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe	3rd
2003	Johar	OSA	G1-CL Hirsch	2nd
2002	High Chaparral (IRE)	LONG (FR)	G1-Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe	3rd
2001	Fantastic Light	LEO (IRE)	G1-Irish Champion Stakes	1st
2000	Kalanisi (IRE)	NEW (GB)	G1-Champion Stakes	1st
1999	Daylami (IRE)	LONG (FR)	G1-Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe	9th
1998	Buck's Boy	BEL	G1-Turf Classic	1st
1997	Chief Bearhart (CAN)	WO	G1-Canadian Int'l	1st
1996	Pilsudski (IRE)	LONG (FR)	G1-Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe	2nd
1995	Northern Spur (IRE)	OSA	G1-Oak Tree Invitational	1st
1994	Tikkanen	BEL	G1-Turf Classic	1st
1993	Kotashaan (FR)	OSA	G1-Oak Tree Invitational	1st
1992	Fraise	BEL	G1-Turf Classic	2nd
1991	Miss Alleged (FR)*	LRL	G1-DC International	5th
1990	In the Wings (GB)	LONG (FR)	G1-Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe	4th
1989	Prized	BEL	G1-Jockey Club Gold Cup	4th
1988	Great Communicator	OSA	G1-Oak Tree Invitational	2nd
1987	Theatrical (IRE)	AQU	G2-Red Smith	1st
1986	Manila	BEL	G1-Turf Classic	1st
1985	Pebbles (GB)*	NEW (GB)	G1-Champion Stakes	1st
1984	Lashkari (GB)	LONG (FR)	G2-Prix du Conseil du Paris	1st

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*filly

A couple of things that stand out to me from the above information: first, if a domestic horse is going to win the Turf, he (or she) will almost always be exiting a winning race.  Fourteen horses have won the Turf after making their final start in North America with eight finishing first and three finishing second.  For the most part, North American horses that win the Turf come in off of a sharp performance.

The second point I take away from the above chart is pretty simple: Longchamp (8 winners) and Belmont (7) have produced more Breeders' Cup Turf winners than any other tracks.  While I suppose that makes complete sense given the fact that each track holds top quality racing just a month before the Breeders' Cup, I was a bit surprised to not see a bigger representation from Woodbine or Oak Tree.  Specifically, Woodbine has produced only one Turf winner in twenty-six years of Breeders' Cup Turf races.