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2010 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Preview

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Group 1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
Longchamp Racecourse
1 1/2 miles (about)
Purse: $5,500,000
Post-time: 4:05pm Paris (10:05am Eastern / 7:05am Pacific)
TV: HRTV

#

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Odds*

1

Youmzain (IRE)

Hughes, R.

Channon, M.

12/1

2

Marinous (FR)

Bonilla, D.

Head, F.

30/1

3

Fame and Glory (GB)

Murtagh, J.

O'Brien, A.

9/2

4

Pouvoir Absolu (GB)

Fargeat, S.

Lellouche, E.

50/1

5

Weiner Walzer (GER)

Queally, T.

Hirschberger, J.

50/1

6

Calvary Man (GB)

Dettori, F.

Bin Suroor, S.

15/1

7

Nakayama Festa (JPN)

Ebina, M.

Ninomiya, Y.

20/1

8

Timos (GER)

Fallon, K.

Doumen, T.

30/1

9

Duncan (GB)

Buick, W.

Gosden, J.

30/1

10

Liang Kay (GER)

Pasquier, S.

Ostmann, U.

50/1

11

Tullamore

Blondel, F.

Koplik, Z.

50/1

12

Plumania (GB)

Peslier, O.

Fabre, A.

20/1

13

Workforce (GB)

Moore, R.

Stoute, M.

6/1

14

Behkabad (FR)

Lemaire, CP

Rouget, J-C

4/1

15

Cape Blanco (IRE)

Soumillion, C.

O'Brien, A.

12/1

16

Planteur (IRE)

Crastus, A.

Lellouche, E.

8/1

17

Lope De Vega (IRE)

Guyon, M.

Fabre, A.

30/1

18

Midas Touch (GB)

Heffernan, J.

O'Brien, A.

30/1

19

Victoire Pisa (JPN)

Take, Y.

Sumii, K.

20/1

20

Sarafina (FR)

Moose, G.

DeRoyer-Dupre, A.

8/1

*Odds are morning line for the North American betting pools.

If you'd like to view free past performances for this race, the DRF has pdf you can download at the following link (DRF.com: Arc PPs)

A field of twenty will contest one of the world's great horse races at Longchamp this morning, the Group 1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.

The ground at Lonchamp has been rated as "soft" for the entire week, while some of the jockeys at the Paris racecourse have stated that the course is "very soft" as of Saturday afternoon  French racing officials believe the rain is behind them and that the sun may break prior to the Arc, the course is unlikely to significantly dry out prior to the start of the Arc.    With that in mind, it probably makes sense to look for a horse that can handle the soft going and that is fit enough to handle this testing race.

Let's take a look at some of the more interesting runners in this year's field.

-One of the lightest raced horses in this field is Sir Michael Stout's Epsom Derby winner, Workforce.  He was so good in the Derby and so bad in the King George & Queen Elizabeth Stakes that you really don't know what to make of him in this spot.  The ground is going to be testing and he hasn't had a race since July 24th.  Seems like a big ask of this colt but it's not like he's facing one of the toughest Arc fields. 

-The probable favorite is the local entry, 14-Behkabad, the winner of Longchamp's Arc prep, the G2 Prix Niel on September 12th.  He's proven over soft ground, and more importantly, soft ground at Longchamp.  He makes sense on a lot of levels.

-When I first started looking that the field for this race I was really drawn to Irish Derby winner Cape Blanco, who had looked very impressive in winning the G1 Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown.  Then the rain came in and turned Longchamp into a bog, something I believe Cape Blanco wants no part of.  Unless there is a dramatic change in the going, Cape Blanco appears to be an unlikely winner.

-Another of the French hopefuls is 16-Planteur, a three-year-old son of Danehill Dancer (IRE) that has finished 2nd in each of his last three races - all over soft ground and two of which were at Longchamp.  This colt appears to be getting better and better as the season wears on and he could be sitting on a big effort in this race.

-One of the fillies in this field, 12-Plumania (GB) defeated Yomzain in the G1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud two races bad and finished 2nd to Midday in the G1 Prix Vermeille in her final Arc prep.  I don't think it'd be a shock to see this filly run a good race; I don't know that she's the winner but she could be in the mix.

-If you're looking to bet a horse that runs primarily in the Czech Republic, you are in luck!  The 11-Tullamore has run his last three races at Prague and Most...which I know nothing about.  He's 50/1 so well take that as a sign that he's a toss.

-Tough to know what to make of the Japanese invader, 7-Nakayama Festa; he ran well over soft ground to finish second in the Prix Foy last month but that race doesn't look to be incredibly strong on paper.  Seems like a bit of a while card.

-The filly Sarafina has had a lot written about her in the past week; some believe she could notch another win for the females in this prestigious race.  I don't believe the ground or the trip will be an issue but I wonder if she's up to the task of winning at this level. At the same time, she only finished a ½ length behind Plumania last time out, so if you like that filly it's hard not to like this one, as well.

Selections

I'm going to stick with the local entries and the "horse-for-course" angle for this year's Arc and take Planteur and Behkabad.  I'll play Planteur to win and then toss the two of them into an exacta with Plumania and Youmzain.  I don't think Youmzain has a chance to really win this race but the horse has finished 2nd three years in a row and I'm not about to lose an exacta by not including him.