2010 Keeneland Fall Meet: Day 1

Opening day of the 2010 fall meet at Keeneland features two graded stakes races on the card: the Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades for juvenile fillies and the Grade 3 Phoenix for sprinters three-years-old and up.  Here's a quick look at each of the opening day stakes races.

Grade 3 Phoenix Stakes
Keeneland
6 furlongs
Three year olds and up
Purse: $175,000
Post-ti me: 4:45 EDT

PP	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	ML
1	Goldzar	Lebron, V.	Wismer, G.	20/1
2	Greeley's Conquest	Mena, M.	Thomas, G.	8/1
3	Wise Dan	Bejarano, R.	Lopresti, C.	8/1
4	Wild L	Corbett, G.	Matz, M.	12/1
5	Warrior's Reward	Leparoux, J.	Wilkes, I.	5/2
6	Moralist	Sellers, S.	Domenosky, T.	20/1
7	Hollywood Hit	McAleney, J.	Bolton, A.	4/1
8	Super Robusto	Baze, M.	Catalano, W.	15/1
9	Ez Dreamer	Albarado, R.	Owens, K.	6/1
10	Rockin' Rockstar	Martinez, W.	Lauer, M.	20/1
11	Canonize	Espinoza, V.	Ellis, R.	4/1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Phoenix Stakes looks like a race with a potentially vulnerable favorite as the morning line pick, Warrior's Reward, is about as much of a dirt horse as you can find.  He does have one start over a synthetic surface, so he fits the profile of a last out dirt horse winner at Keeneland, but that one effort was at today's track and it was a dull 5^th in the Grade 3 Perryville Stakes.  In terms of speed figures, he's the top of the field, but when you consider the racing surface it's hard not to have some questions.

3-Wise Dan (8/1) could make a very nice mid-shot pick in this race for a couple different reasons: he's a proven winner over synthetic surfaces (won at Turfway back in March to break his maiden) and he's coming in off a five month layoff, a move that trainer Charles Lopresti is 5-for-20 with over the last five years (25%, $3.04 ROI).  This is a big jump in class so his odds probably need to stay in the 8/1 to 10/1 range to make this a good value play.

7-Hollywood Hit (4/1) is the likely speed-of-the-speed in this race, as he's routinely been clicking off 21+ and 22 second splits in his sprint races at Woodbine this year.  He's a bit ignored on the morning line due to the presence of Warrior's Reward, but when you look at his past success on synthetics (7-5-1-0) and at the distance (9-5-2-0) he might just be the one to beat.

 

Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades Stakes
Keeneland
1 1/16 miles (Polytrack)
Two year olds, Fillies
Purse: $400,000
Post-time: 5:20 EDT

PP	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	ML
1	Poof Too	Husbands, P.	Frostad, M.	SCR
2	Harlan's Ruby	Leparoux, J.	McPeek, K.	9/2
3	Jordy Y	Alvarado, J.	Catalano, W.	4/1
4	Wonderlandbynight	Baird, E.	Reavis, M.	3/1
5	Brushfirefairytale	Goncalves, L.	Coyle, V.	20/1
6	Wickedly Perfect	Bejarano, R.	O'Neill, D.	5/2
7	Forest Legend	Lenclud, F.	Oliver, V.	20/1
8	Dos Lunas	Court, J,	Glenney, J.	5/1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6-Wickedly Perfect (5/2) attempts to move from the Polytrack at Del Mar to the Polytrack at Keeneland, a move that has yet to produce a winner in the last four Keeneland fall meets.  She appears to be the early speed of the race which might be another mark against her given the poor record of frontend types in the fall at two turns.  When you combine those two factors and compare it to her 5/2 morning line...well, the value just doesn't seem to be there. 

The two fillies exiting the Grade 3 Arlington-Washington Lassie (3-Jordy Y and 4-Wonderlandbynight) look like good plays in this spot.  Wonderlandbynight used a long, grinding run to easily defeat Jordy Y in the race at Arlington, a running style that, even without a ton of speed, might serve her well in this spot.  Jordy Y, however, has a bit more get-up-and-go in the early stages and her tactical speed advantage could give her the jump on her Illinois rival when the field gets to the top of the lane.  At 4/1 on the morning line, I like Jordy Y for the win in today's Darley Alcibiades Stakes.