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Maiden Claiming Monday

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After taking last Monday off for the holiday (and other racing action), Maiden Claiming Monday is back and this time we head to the Big Easy and the 2nd race of the day at the Fair Grounds. 

I went two deep in the last Maiden Claiming Monday and came away with the odds-favorite for the second straight week.  This week we'll see if we can't actually get some sort of price to hit the board.

Maiden Claiming Monday Tracker

Fair Grounds
Race 2
$10,000 Maiden Claiming - Louisiana Bred
6 Furlongs
Fillies and Mares
4 and 5 Year Olds

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

ML

1

Adrins Promise

Carmouche S Jr

Romero, Sr. John J

30-1

2

Money Sweet Money

Torres F C

Wilson Shane

3-1

3

Ocala Glitter

Brown M

Zenon Jessie

20-1

4

Afternoon Star

Clark K D

McQueen Richard O

15-1

5

Bobalou Slew

Bonnet C

Schmidt Denise

15-1

6

Finest Purple

Roberts A

Duhon Joseph O

12-1

7

Java Honey

Martin E M Jr

Melancon, Jr. F

5-2

8

Diamond Waimea

Agilar T

Meaux Patrick

8-1

9

Easy to Skip

Graham J

David Sam B Jr

8-1

10

Missa Paula

Riquelme J

Ladner Cedric

50-1

11

Brillant and Royal

Mena M

Morreale Jake V

30-1

12

Jenni Jenni Jenni

Jacinto J

Johnston Edward J

4-1

AE

Punch Alex

Gonzalez C V

Meiners Charles

SCR

AE

Stormin Start

Dugas D

Mouton Patrick

SCR

 

1-Adrins Promise: Dropped down to state-bred company last time out and ended up running worse than when she was facing non-restricted runners.  Might have an excuse as that last effort was over a muddy and sealed track.  This filly hasn't shown any inkling that she's ready to run big.

2-Money Sweet Money: She's sporting an 0-for-11 lifetime record but ran a fairly decent race last time out where she closed into a slow pace to finish 3rd by three lengths.  Trainer is 1-for-29 at the current meet...tough to get behind this one.

3-Ocala Glitter: She didn't have much of a chance in her first race as she pretty much stood still when the gate opened and allowed the field to break two or three lengths ahead of her.  Jockey is 0-for-80 at the meet and the trainer is 0-for-6 - ugly numbers all the way around.  I'd be inclined to give this one a second chance if the connections weren't so awful right now. 

4-Afternoon Star:  She tried state-bred Maiden Special Weight company three times then dropped in with Louisiana breds the last two races and saw nary a difference in her performance.  The only time this filly has shown an interest in running was in a turf race three back.  She doesn't get the lawn today and there isn't anything else in the pattern that suggests she wakes up today.

5-Bobalou Slew: In her last race she ran well for four furlongs and finished the slowest of the entire field to end up 7th by 10 lengths.  That was the first time this mare has shown an interest in being up at the front of the pack which may signal that she's about ready to run.

6-Finest Purple: She ran into a very deep and tough field in her debut effort, a LA bred Maiden Special Weight originally scheduled for the lawn.  The 2nd, 3rd, and 6th place runners all came back to win restricted Maiden Special Weights races at next asking.  She's had a breather, a barn change, and a pretty big drop in class, but the question still remains: can she win in this spot?  Might be worth a shot at 12/1.

7-Java Honey: Stalked the pace and just missed in her last effort, an 8k maiden event on February 1st.  Another filly running for a barn that is not exactly lighting up the board right now (1-for-46 at the meet) but she'll be the post time favorite off that last race.

8-Diamond Waimea: An 0-for-12 mare that, at a minimum, has been consistent.  If the pace is slow, she finishes evenly.  If the pace is fast, she finishes evenly.  This will be only her second try at sprinting after repeatedly being asked to go two turns at Louisiana Downs and Delta Downs.  8/1 on the morning...eh, seems a little low for a mare that hasn't shown even a hint of wanting to win.

9-Easy to Skip: She's run four lifetime races, two of which were decent efforts and two of which were awful.  The two awful races both came over a muddy and sealed track, something that she probably won't have to contend with today.  If she can match the performance she ran two back in a 12.5k maiden she might be able to pull it off.  A lot to like at 8/1 on the ML

10-Missa Paula: Five lifetime starts and she hasn't run fast enough to even register on the Beyer scale.  She ran a little bit better in that last race at a mile and 40 yards but returns to sprinting today where she hasn't shown anything on the track. 

11-Brilliant and Royal: She's shown speed in her last two races only to completely run out of gas.  Both of those were at a mile and 40 and the return to sprints today might prove to be beneficial if she was able to gain some conditioning.  Decent three furlong work on the 19th suggests this one might be ready to fire her best effort.  Don't know if she'll win but at 30/1 on the morning line she looks like a filly to include.

12-Jenni Jenni Jenni: Java Honey might be the post time favorite but it's this filly that really looks the best on paper, in my opinion.  She got caught up in a sealed muddy track last time out but prior to that she ran quite well in a 15k open company maiden at Evangeline.  Trainer and jockey are hitting at 30% for the meet with a $3.01 ROI, some of the best numbers in this field.  Doubt she'll be 4/1 at post time but she's a must play in this spot.

The Selections

I ended up going four deep in this race but I am going to toss the morning line favorite as I just can't get beyond the 1-for-46 barn.  The 6 is taking a big class drop after running in a very tough debut affair and should be good value on the board.  The 9 could come up with a big one if the track ends up FAST and she's taking a little bit of a drop off her last strong performance.  The 11 shortens up after a couple of routes that hopefully built up some stamina and sits at 30/1 on the ML.  And finally, the 12 is sent out by a scorching hot jockey/trainer combination.  So essentially three bombs, a short priced horse, and a toss of the morning line favorite.

6 , 9 ,11, 12