Maiden Claiming Monday

I've missed Maiden Claiming Monday the last couple of weeks but we're back today with a look at a low level race taking place somewhere around the country.

As a reminder, the goal of Maiden Claiming Monday is to take a look at a hard race, try to narrow down the contenders to a select few, and then figuring out how deep I need to go in the race in order to pick the winner, similar to if I was playing the race in a Pick 3/4/6.  Just picking the winner, however, is not the goal.  If you go 10 deep in a race and end up picking the odds-on favorite that's a bad thing.

I'm keeping a tracking sheet that identifies what race I'm playing, how many horses deep I'm going, whether I picked the winner, the odds, and whether that winner was the favorite.  So far I'm 3-for-4, but I've only been able to pick favorites.  Picking a favorite is fine if you are only going one or two deep.  It's not fine if you're spreading significantly in a race. 

Maiden Claiming Monday Tracker

Race 10
Fair Grounds
10K Maiden Claiming
5 ½ furlongs
La Bred Fillies, Four and Five Years Old
Post time: 5:43 Central

We go back to the Fair Grounds for today's Maiden Claiming Monday where full field of Louisiana bred 10k maidens will go 5 1/2 furlongs on the main tract.  The morning line odds-maker obviously didn't have a clue as to which filly is going to take the action at the windows since they made 3-Stormin Start the favorite at 4/1.

The Throw-outs

Instead of looking only at the contenders I'm going to start by looking at my throw-outs for the race and first up are the two debut runners: 6-Obleeki and the 7-Kiowa Autum.  Neither of these firsters have shown much if anything in the morning, they aren't by win early sires, and their trainers have shown nothing with first time starters (Obleeki's trainer is 0-for-28 that last five years with FTS, while Kiowa Autumn's trainer is 4-for41).

I'll also throw out 2-Orange Creams, a second time starter dropping from a 20K event last time out.  0-for-17 trainer and a 2-for-158 jockey, and didn't show a lick of talent the first time around.  11-Red Roger is also an easy toss for me - new trainer, long lay-off, first time Lasix, moderate to slow morning moves...doesn't look like a winner on paper.

It gets a little harder to toss horses at this point given the fact that this is a race full of low level maiden and the rest of these have at least one or two redeeming qualities about them.  However, there are a couple more fillies that I just can't include.  1-Win Back hasn't run poorly in her starts at Fair Grounds but she's 0-for-18 lifetime and no matter how good a set-up he gets she's never been able to score that first win.  Plus, she's 6/1 on the morning line and will probably stay somewhere in that vicinity given her consistent form.  Those odds are a little low for an 0-for-18er.

4-New Broom has early speed in her corner, which is a plus, but hasn't ever been able to finish strong.  Toss in a trainer that was 0-for-51 in 2009 and 0-for-16 at the meet....eh, I don't see it.

Final toss is 8-Judy's Sweetpea, a mare that ran her career best over a muddy and sealed Fair Grounds track on January 24^th.  The track looked pretty tiring that day, which probably aided her in her deep closing run.  If the track stays dry and fast today she's a toss.

The Contenders

I'm left with five fillies and mares that look like contenders to me and I'm going to include all of those in a race that could see any one of them win. 

3-Stormin Start showed a lot of speed in her debut effort before fading badly in the stretch.  She got a little R&R and will take a price cut in her comeback. 

5-Kayaking is dropping in from state-bred Maiden Special Weight company at Louisiana Downs where she's been able to stalk a fairly quick pace in both of her races.  Trainer and jock don't sport very good numbers but I'll take a shot with her due to the drop and her early foot.

9-View of Broadway...I wanted to toss this filly but just couldn't bring myself to do it due to the fact that she's run her best races when covering a spring distance as opposed to her last effort at a mile and 40.  Plus, at 12/1 on the ML she offers a little bit of value.

10-Red Ruby Delight showed speed versus 15k claimers last time out and is probably the most consistent speed horse in the field.  Can't throw out a horse that one day could get loose on the lead.

And finally, I'll include the 12-Punch Alex, an 0-for-15 mare that will try this level for the second time.  The wide draw isn't a killer in these 5 ½ furlong sprints at the Fair Grounds and she's been able to get herself into a decent stalking position on multiple occasions.  She'll probably need a little help up front, but at 8/1 on the ML she might be able to score at a decent price.

Selections

So I'm five deep in a field of 12 but feel confident that my five are the likely winners.  And perhaps, for once, I'll get something that pays more than Even odds.

3, 5, 9, 10, 12