The Derby Trail: Three Year Old Graded Earnings

Less than two months to go until Kentucky Derby 136 which means it's probably a good time to start looking at the graded earnings list to see who looks good, and who's got some work to do to make it to Louisville.  A horse far down the current earnings list isn't without hope given the big purses up for grabs in the Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby, Arkansas Derby, Wood Memorial, Illinois Derby, and Blue Grass Stakes.  At the same time, it's much easier to make it to Louisville if you have a little cash in the bank as opposed to being in a position where you have to win to get in.

The top 50 three year olds ranked by graded earnings are summarized below along with my thoughts.

• All three of the fillies, She Be Wild, Blind Luck, and Crisp are unlikely to run in the Derby and can essentially be taken out of the equation even though they are nominated to the Triple Crown and, therefore, eligible to enter.
• Lookin At Lucky, Vale of York (IRE), Noble's Promise, and Rule probably have enough right now to make it into the Derby with adding another cent to their totals.  Last year horses drew into the Derby with as little as $100,000 in graded earnings.
• I haven't read anything about Beethoven (IRE) in a while and I don't think his connections are attempting to point him towards the Derby.  We'll see if any news pops up.  By the way, if you are thinking, "wasn't Beethoven a three year old last year?" you are both right and wrong.  There was a three year old named Beethoven on the Derby trail last year but that Beethoven is different than this Beethoven (IRE) because that Beethoven didn't have the little "(IRE)" after his name.  He was American and won the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club.  This one comes from Europe.
• D'Funnybone, Discreetly Mine, Homeboykris, Dublin, Interactif, and probably Aikenite look pretty good right now on the earnings side.  
• LeComte winner Ron the Greek ($63,000) has some work to do and will need to hit the board in the Louisiana Derby and possibly another race to make his spot more secure.
• San Vicente runner-up, Dave in Dixie, isn't even in the Top 50 right now.  He's probably got two more starts in him, including the Santa Anita Derby, to pick up the couple hundred thousand he'll need to draw in.
• He may have blown away the Fountain of Youth, but Eskendereya can't afford to rest on his laurels with only $150,000 in graded earnings.  If he keeps to his form he should be fine with big the big money races, but unlike the horses at the top, he has no room for error.
• Awesome Act, thanks in part to his victory in the Gotham, looks to be in good shape heading towards the Grade 1 Wood Memorial, so long as he doesn't flop.
• Speaking of "flop", how much did Buddy's Saint's disastrous Fountain of Youth hurt?  He's now at 18 (tied with Awesome Act) and probably has enough to get in but I sure wouldn't bet on it.  He needs a good run in his next start or it could be all over for a colt that was at the top of many Derby lists early this spring (including mine).
• I know some people have thrown around the name of Barbaro's brother, Lentenor, in their Derby talk, but this list should illustrate nicely that this colt has almost zero chance at making the starting gate in Louisville.  He'd essentially have to show up and win the Florida Derby off of a single maiden victory to jump into the picture.  And while he's a nice horse, I don't know if he's that nice.  Hopefully trainer Michael Matz will let this colt progresses slowly instead of rushing him to the Derby just because a bunch of talking heads would like to see him there.  (/rant)
• How important are those juvenile graded earnings?  There are several horses in here that would be dead in the water if they hadn't racked up some nice dollars during their two year old season (Buddy's Saint being one of them).