After almost two and a half months of maneuvering, racing, and posturing, we are now in the home stretch of the prep race season. Only 30 days until Kentucky Derby 136, and only an handful of Derby preps on the horizon, all of which are the "big ones" – the Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby, Arkansas Derby, Blue Grass Stakes, and Illinois Derby. Any horse that wins one of these final prep races will find themself in the starting gate at Churchill Downs.
Prior to last weekend’s Kentucky Derby prep races I would have bet good money that the winner of the Louisiana Derby would have been more impressive than the winner of the Sunland Derby. And I would have lost money on that bet as the little known race in New Mexico, featuring graded status for the first time in its short history, produced one of the top three year old performances of the spring.
Last Week’s Preps
Grade 2 Louisiana Derby (Race replay): Upon watching the replay again, the horse of this race for me was pacesetter, A Little Warm. Making his first start around two turns and trying to get a mile and an eighth, A Little Warm did all the dirty work on the front end and didn’t give up the lead to the Mission Impazible until they were in the shadow of the wire…and he still hung on for second over Drosselmeyer. Now Drosselmeyer had a much, much more difficult trip than A Little Warm, so perhaps the pacesetter was extremely lucky to hold onto second. But at the same time, there were plenty of other horses in the field that had perfectly fine trips yet they weren’t able to pass A Little Warm - I think that’s got to count for something.
Don’t know what to say about the winner, Mission Impazible, or any of the other horses in this race. I don’t think it was the deepest or most contentious Louisiana Derby we’ve seen. And I have my doubts that any of these horses are going to be at their best going a mile and a quarter. Mission Impazible shouldn’t have a problem but he doesn’t appear to have that quick turn of foot during the final part of a race that will separate him from the rest of the field.
Drosselmeyer, the recipient of truly adventurous trip around the track, was only able to nab the third spot and the $75,000 that goes with it. He’s now on the outside looking in for the Derby.
Grade 3 Sunland Derby (Race replay): In retrospect, we should have seen this one coming: Robby Albarado travels to Sunland Park in New Mexico to ride a recent maiden winner in the Sunland Derby. Throw in the fact that the race was on the same day as the Louisiana Derby (where there were plenty of good races and purses to be had) and it shouldn’t surprise us that Endorsement was a live horse.
Despite the appearance of several speed horses in the field, Conveyance once again was able to break well and secure a somewhat easy lead heading into the first turn and the backstretch. However, unlike his performance in the Southwest Stakes, the mile and an eighth distance proved to be too much to ask for. As the field moved on the turn, Endorsement and Robby Albarado easily moved by the leader and by the top of the stretch the Sunland Derby was over.
If you watch the replay of this race you realize Conveyance is in a heap load of trouble when he’s moving onto the far turn; jockey Martin Garcia is asking for a lot of run from his horse while Robby Albarado is hardly moving at all on Endorsement. It was clear at this point that Conveyance was done and Endorsement was going to roll.
Endorsement is going to face a much more difficult task in the Derby than he did last Saturday in terms of trip and traffic. But this colt does appear to have a lot of upside.
Grade 3 Lane’s End Stakes (Race replay): What do you do with this race? That’s the question I was asking myself immediately after I watched turf horse Dean’s Kitten roll four-wide by the field on the far turn to win going away by two and a half lengths. The winner has done nothing to speak of on dirt but certainly looks like he could be a decent turf/synthetic animal. Initially, I thought "toss, toss, toss" as in I would throw this horse into the long shot bin. After a little time to digest the results, I still think Dean’s Kitten is a long shot in the Derby, but I also think he’s a long shot that could factor into the deep exotics.
If he runs in the Derby it is highly likely that Dean’s Kitten will find himself far back of the field early on. He stalked the Lane’s End pace, but that was with fractions of :48+ and 1:12+; take a second or two off of those splits and Dean’s Kitten will be mid-pack, at best. And while Dean’s Kitten didn’t come home particularly fast in the Lane’s End (12.78 over final 1/16th) he did maintain his speed much better than the rest of the field. In other words, he is pretty much a grinder, and a grinder that’s going to be well back in the Derby.
Dean’s Kitten will be ignored at the windows on May 1st and will probably go off at something like 50/1 or 60/1, but with a hot pace and his running style, I think he is worth a shot in any superfecta or trifecta plays.
This Week’s Preps
I’m going to go more in-depth as to the contenders for each race in tomorrow Derby Prep Preview post, but today I’m going to take a look at what’s at stake for some of the horses in each of these events.
Grade 1 Wood Memorial: Eskendereya has been at or near the top of everyone’s contender list following his brilliant performance in the Fountain of Youth, but he’s still got some work to do in order to secure a spot in the Derby. The bottom of this post has a list of the top-60 three year olds ranked by their graded earnings. I’ve taken the liberty to remove the names of several horses that we know for certain are not headed to the Derby (Winslow Homer, Vale of York, Buddy’s Saint, Blind Luck, etc.). From the remaining names, we find Eskendereya currently sitting at #30 with $150,000 in earnings. Winning the Wood would certainly get Eskendereya in the front door, while a second place finish probably nets him a healthy $150k or so. Third place? That will make things a little more interesting.
In all likelihood, Eskendereya is going to pick up the earnings he needs in the Wood partly due to the fact that he’s entered against only five other horses. Only a complete flop will keep him out of the Derby starting gate.
Gotham winner Awesome Act currently sits a #19 with $210,000 in graded earnings; a third place finish or higher should have him securely in the Derby.
Both Schoolyard Dreams and Jackson Bend would be on the fringe with a second place finish and need to win to make it.
Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby: Lookin At Lucky is easily in the field and can really use this race however trainer Bob Baffert sees fit.
Sidney’s Candy currently sits at #23 on the earnings chart; a third place finish or better probably gets him enough to qualify, assuming nothing chaotic happens in the other preps. A non-top 3 finish and it’s going to be tough to make the field.
A second place finish would put Caracortado at around $250k and, like a ton of other horses, put him squarely on the fringe. Cardiff Giant, along with the rest of the field, needs to win to get in.
Grade 2 Illinois Derby: The purse for this race is $500,000, which makes it less of a "win and you’re in" type of prep when compared to the Wood and the SA Derby. Morning line favorite Backtalk has the highest graded earnings of any in this field and currently sits at #26. A third place finish or higher probably gets the job done for this colt. As for the rest of the field, only American Lion has what we would call "significant" graded earnings at this time ($87,000, t40th), and all of these horses need the full winner’s share to have a shot at the Derby.
Top 10 Contenders
A little bit of a change up in the Top 10 after a very good performance from Endorsement in the Grade 3 Sunland Derby. I dropped Conveyance from the Top 10 as his Sunland performance certainly indicated that he’ll have trouble negotiating a mile and a quarter in the Derby. He’s replaced by the Sunland winner, Endorsement, a horse that is light on experience but big on talent. I moved Dublin up a spot to #5, making him the biggest beneficiary of Conveyance’s removal.
I like what I’ve seen from Schoolyard Dreams in his races this spring but he’s down to his last bullet in the Wood Memorial.
|
Rank |
Last |
Horse |
Notes |
|
1 |
1 |
Lookin At Lucky |
Final prep in Santa Anita Derby on Saturday. |
|
2 |
2 |
Noble's Promise |
Will finally be free of the #1 for his final prep in Arkansas. |
|
3 |
3 |
Eskendereya |
A solid performance in the Wood cements his status. |
|
4 |
4 |
Awesome Act |
He's got the earnings to get in; Wood is a true prep. |
|
5 |
6 |
Dublin |
Pointing towards Arkansas Derby |
|
6 |
-- |
Endorsement |
Proved he could run in the Sunland Derby. |
|
7 |
7 |
Schoolyard Dreams |
Last chance to grab earnings in the Wood this Saturday. |
|
8 |
8 |
Odysseus |
Tampa Bay Derby winner likely headed to Keeneland. |
|
9 |
9 |
Rule |
Probably the strongest of all the early speed types. |
|
10 |
10 |
Ice Box |
Had the perfect set-up but Zito has him in great form. |
Prep Race Speed Figures
Grade 2 Louisiana Derby
94: Mission Impazible
93: A Little Warm
92: Drosselmeyer
92: Discreetly Mine
90: Stay Put
88: Ron the Greek
85: The Program
85: Mister Marti Gras
83: Fly Down
78: Wow Wow Wow
76: Hotep
75: Island Soul
0: Backtrack
Grade 2 Lane’s End
93: Dean’s Kitten
89: Northern Giant
83: Connemara
80: Chief Counsel
79: Vow to Wager
78: Letsgetitonmon
73: Outlaw Man
72: Doubles Partner
67: Ranger Heartley
Grade 3 Sunland Derby
101: Endorsement
96: Conveyance
91: Tempted to Tapit
88: Fog Alert
86: Nacho Friend
83: Storming Saint
58: McKenna’s Justice
36: Classical Slew
32: Guiltbyassociation
Top 60 Three Year Old Graded Earnings
|
Rank |
Horse |
GrStk Earnings |
|
1 |
Lookin At Lucky |
$1,390,000 |
|
2 |
Noble's Promise |
708,000 |
|
3 |
Rule |
645,000 |
|
4 |
Mission Impazible |
473,434 |
|
5 |
Ice Box |
457,500 |
|
6 |
D' Funnybone |
420,000 |
|
7 |
Endorsement |
400,000 |
|
8 |
Conveyance |
386,000 |
|
9 |
Devil May Care |
363,000 |
|
10 |
Beethoven (IRE) |
342,616 |
|
11 |
Discreetly Mine |
340,000 |
|
12 |
Dean's Kitten |
326,475 |
|
13 |
Dublin |
273,208 |
|
14 |
Interactif |
270,450 |
|
15 |
Homeboykris |
250,500 |
|
16 |
Crisp |
225,000 |
|
17 |
Aikenite |
218,000 |
|
18 |
Make Music for Me |
215,000 |
|
19 |
Awesome Act |
210,000 |
|
20 |
Mendip |
200,000 |
|
21 |
Radiohead (GB) |
196,332 |
|
22 |
Uh Oh Bango |
187,952 |
|
23 |
Sidney's Candy |
180,000 |
|
Odysseus |
180,000 |
|
|
25 |
A Little Warm |
180,000 |
|
26 |
Backtalk |
172,566 |
|
27 |
Super Saver |
163,832 |
|
28 |
Pleasant Prince |
162,500 |
|
29 |
Tempted to Tapit |
156,000 |
|
30 |
Eskendereya |
150,000 |
|
31 |
Connemara |
138,500 |
|
32 |
Northern Giant |
127,000 |
|
33 |
Frozen Power (IRE) |
110,000 |
|
34 |
Caracortado |
108,000 |
|
35 |
Paddy O'Prado |
100,950 |
|
36 |
Schoolyard Dreams |
100,000 |
|
Aspire |
100,000 |
|
|
38 |
Thiskyhasnolimit |
99,064 |
|
39 |
Alphie's Bet |
90,000 |
|
40 |
American Lion |
87,000 |
|
Drosselmeyer |
87,000 |
|
|
42 |
Pulsion |
80,000 |
|
Jackson Bend |
80,000 |
|
|
44 |
The Program |
75,500 |
|
45 |
Ron the Greek |
70,500 |
|
46 |
Ailalea |
69,900 |
|
47 |
Nacho Friend |
64,500 |
|
48 |
Who's Up |
60,000 |
|
49 |
William's Kitten |
58,901 |
|
50 |
Fly by Phil |
58,280 |
|
51 |
Switch |
58,000 |
|
52 |
Smiling Tiger |
54,000 |
|
Cardiff Giant |
54,000 |
|
|
54 |
Roman Invasion |
50,000 |
|
55 |
Marcello |
50,000 |
|
56 |
Ibboyee |
45,000 |
|
57 |
Litigation Risk |
45,000 |
|
58 |
Classical Slew |
45,000 |
|
59 |
Peppi Knows |
41,000 |
|
60 |
Lentenor |
37,500 |