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Derby Shake-up: Favorite Eskendereya is Out

Not the best news to wake up to on a Sunday morning.  The full article from the is here.

As many will remember, last year's Derby favorite scratched out of the race on Saturday morning. (I Want Revenge).

This is a major shake-up in the Derby field.  First, it will allow one more horse to get in that was on the fringe.  Second, I think this will create an even more wide open betting race.  While the odds will be lower on some horses, there is going to be no heavy favorite ("heavy" in Derby terms).  Lookin At Lucky will almost certainly be the favorite at odds of somewhere around 3/1, in my estimation.  Finally, colts like Dublin, Endorsement, Noble's Promise, and Sidney's Candy will probably see their odds drop as a result of this scratch but without the presence of a 2/1 favorite (assuming that Lucky stays reasonably high), the exotic payouts should be fat in every pool regardless if you hit to the fav.  

In the end, it's too bad Esky had to miss out of the Derby as I always want to see the best field that we can find.  And even though I wasn't going to bet him to win, his presence would have helped to send a bunch of other horses that I like off at big odds.


Based on the current graded earnings chart, if the connections of the filly Devil My Care decide not to enter the Derby, the #19 and #20 horses to draw in would be Homeboykris and Jackson Bend.  If Devil May Care does enter, then only Homeboykris would make it in.


I've done a quick and dirty change to my odds table to account for the defection of Eskendereya.  Currently, I am not including the filly Devil May Care, if she does enter, I'd probably peg her in the 20/1 to 30/1 range.  The last three horses on the chart (Backtalk, Make Music for Me, and A Little Warm) are currently on the outside looking in. 

With Eskendereya out, I moved Lucky up to 3/1 (from 7/2), Ice Box to 9/1 (from 11/1), Awesome Act to 9/1 (from 11/1), and Noble's Promise, Sidney's Candy, Endorsement, and Dublin all to 13/1 (from 15/1). 


I may have been a little too quick and dirty with these odds; the lower priced horses I don't have too much of a problem with but I'm not happy at the long shot groupings.  Look for a revised table later today or sometime tomorrow when I figure out how I want to account for the defection of Eskendereya.