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One to Win

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With such an assortment of horses and wagers to chose from we all tend to have a multitude of bets going during Derby in which any number of results could trigger a payout.  However, sometimes we get away from trying to figure out which is the one horse that we like the best (a hard task to do in a wide-open twenty horse field).  With that in mind, I'd thought I'd open it up to a very simple question:

If you could only make a single win bet on Saturday's Kentucky Derby, who do you bet and why?  Would you go for the horse that's been winning a lot of races, a pedigree play, pace scenario, or value on the board?  Whatever the reason, what would be your one horse to bet to win?