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2010 Preakness: Early Wagering

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BALTIMORE - MAY 14:  Super Saver, riden by Kevin Willey, during morning excersise in preparation for the 135th Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course on May 14, 2010 in Baltimore, Maryland.  (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
BALTIMORE - MAY 14: Super Saver, riden by Kevin Willey, during morning excersise in preparation for the 135th Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course on May 14, 2010 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
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Like the Derby, Pimlico is offering players the chance to make their Preakness wagers in advance during the Friday card.  According to an article over at Blood-Horse.com article, Super Saver and Lookin At Lucky have been bet down to co-favorite status at 9/5 each.  

Below are the Preakness odds after early wagering today as of approximately 4pm eastern, along with the morning line odds, and the odds on my personal line ("MO"):

Preak_early_odds_medium 

Click on the above table for a larger image.

  • I can't find any data about how much money is in the Win pool right now, but we've seen the last few years that the odds don't swing that dramatically after the early wagering on Friday. 
  • The nice thing about the crowd pounding the top two choices, Super Saver and Lookin At Lucky, is that it creates decent odds on other horses across the tote board.  Paddy O'Prado at 9/1 is quite enticing, as is Schoolyard Dreams at 20/1. 
  • I suppose the most shocking number on these early odds is the 22/1 on Caracortado, but I'm not particularly surprised by that movement.  10/1 on the ML seemed a little low to me on a colt that has been pretty lackluster in his last couple of races and who hasn't touched a dirt surface since Fairplex last summer.  Seems like a lot of questions for the fourth choice on the morning line.
  • Yawanna Twist has seen his odds cut in half from the 30/1 morning line odds assigned by the track oddsmaker. 
  • I thought Dublin might take a little bit of money early on, and he still might, but perhaps everyone is finally coming to the same realization: he just doesn't win.
  • If these odds were to hold exactly where they are, I don't know that I'll be too involved in the Win pools.  Super Saver would entice a win bet at 5/2 or higher, but it's no dice if he's under 2/1 (which he is right now).  Lucky would need to drift up a lot for me to get interested.  About the only horses that I may go the Win bet route on right now are Paddy O'Prado and Schoolyard Dreams, who I think might be worth a light snack at 9/1 and 20/1, respectively. 

    Looks like the exacta pool is where I'm going to focus most of my attention on, with eyes on the Dixie/Preakness Daily Double, as well.

Thoughts on the early betting for tomorrows Preakness?  Does the early wagering change anything about how you'll be betting the race?