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2010 Breeders' Cup Classic: Future Odds

It's never to early to start thinking about the Breeders' Cup, especially if you like to get involved in the some of the future wagers offered by the casinos and the internet.  Obviously, betting through an internet gambling site is illegal for all of us here in the U.S., so we look at these odds just for fun.  Right?  

The chart below summarizes the odds offered by  Bodog.com for the 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic that I recieved from a reader.  You'll find similar odds offered by the Wynn Las Vegas.  I've added a few of my personal observations on these odds below the chart.

Follow below the jump for the odds chart.

Horse

 Current Odds

Zenyatta

4/1

Quality Road

5/1

Summer Bird

7/1

Gio Ponti

12/1

Lookin At Lucky

12/1

Battle Plan

15/1

Misremembered

15/1

Blame

20/1

Drosselmeyer

20/1

Rachel Alexandra

20/1

Mine That Bird

25/1

Twice Over

28/1

Buddy's Saint

30/1

First Dude

30/1

Fly Down

30/1

Gitano Hernando

30/1

Ice Box

30/1

Super Saver

30/1

Arson Squad

35/1

Blind Luck

40/1

Fame And Glory

40/1

Richard's Kid

40/1

Setsuko

40/1

Rail Trip

45/1

St. Nicholas Abbey

45/1

Dublin

50/1

Duke Of Mischief

50/1

Espoir City

50/1

Flying Private

50/1

Regal Ransom

50/1

Sidney's Candy

50/1

General Quarters

60/1

Noble's Promise

60/1

Passion For Gold

60/1

Vision D'état

60/1

Jackson Bend

65/1

Awesome Act

75/1

Awesome Gem

75/1

Crowded House

75/1

Dry Martini

75/1

Endorsement

75/1

Hurricane Ike

75/1

Jan Vermeer

75/1

Paddy O'Prado

75/1

Rule

75/1

Conveyance

85/1

Mission Impazible

85/1

Neko Bay

85/1

Researcher

85/1

Schoolyard Dreams

85/1

American Lion

100/1

Caracortado

100/1

Cool Coal Man

100/1

Discreetly Mine

100/1

Giant Oak

100/1

Make Music For Me

100/1

Mambo Meister

100/1

Vale Of York (IRE)

100/1

Win Willy

100/1

Delightfull Kiss

125/1

Friesan Fire

125/1

Skysurfers

125/1

 

-The first thing that jumps out at you on these future odds is the Zenyatta vs. Rachel Alexandra difference; the bookmakers have Zenyatta at 4/1 and Rachel Alexandra at 20/1.  I think this makes sense from an odds making viewpoint since the bookmakers want equal amounts of money to be bet on each side of the lines.

Personally, I wouldn't touch Zenyatta at 4/1 on a future bet, but I don't know that I'd play Rachel at 20/1, either.  I wouldn't touch those odds for Zenyatta because if I'm going to play a future bet I want much larger odds than I'd receive on the day of the race, and 4/1 (while likely higher than what Zenyatta's odds will be in the Classic) isn't enough value to warrant that play.  As for Rachel, while 20/1 is certainly a good number, it's not enough to entice me to bet on a filly that (right now) is a question mark at a mile and  a quarter against the boys.  Especially when you consider the imposing presence of Quality Road, a horse that will likely contend the early pace should he go in the Classic.

UPDATED: I think I need to expand further with my view on Rachel Alexandra's odds: 20/1 are fantastic future odds on this filly if you think she is as good as she was in 2009, or if you simply believe she'll be the best horse in the Classic field.  While I personally won't be going the future bet route with Rachel, anyone that is a Rachel fan should be crawling over a guy having a heart attack in order to bet her at this number because the odds are as fat as you're going to find on this filly...ever.

-Paddy O'Prado at 75/1 would interest me greatly for a Classic future bet.  There's certainly some risk (he's might be kept on the Turf and, therefore, be an unlikely Classic starter), but we already know he can get the distance and he's previously run well at Churchill Downs.  Given these current odds, I'd be willing to throw a $20 future wager in his direction.  If it hits, you're raking a cool $1,500 into your bankroll.

-Super Saver at 30/1 is also a future wager that might have a little bit of teeth.  Again, this is a colt that has shown the he loves the Churchill Downs main track, although it's a question mark as to whether he'll be ridden by the Churchill master, Calvin Borel.  

Now there's a question for the masses: what odds would you set on the horse that Borel rides in the Classic?  Super Saver?  Rachel Alexandra? Mine That Bird?  The odds have to be pretty heavy on Rachel Alexandra, maybe 2/5.  But if he doesn't ride Rachel, it'd almost have to be Super Saver (assuming all of the horses continue to move forward).  As for Mine That Bird, well, something really, really high sounds about right.  Perhaps 1000/1.

For future wager purposes, I'd like to see something more along the lines of 40/1 or higher for Super Saver, but 30/1 isn't bad.

-Ice Box at 30/1 is another that isn't too bad.  Like Super Saver and Paddy O'Prado, he's a fit for the distance and the surface. 

-Mine That Bird at 25/1?  No freaking' way.  He needs to actually run a race in 2010 before I'd consider him for a future bet.  Throw in the fact that it's highly unlikely that Borel will ride him in the Classic makes him probably the worst future bet on the board.  Realistically, this colt should be in the 75/1 to 100/1 range.

-Quality Road at 5/1 is just too low for me to take the plunge.  If Rachel and Zenyatta both make the Classic (along with Looking At Lucky and Super Saver), Quality Road will be available at a decent price.  Maybe not 5/1, but decent.  Part of the risk of the future wager is that the horse might not even make it to the race at all.  In order to protect against that possibility I need to get much better odds than I believe I'll get on race day.

-With this year's Breeders' Cup back on a conventional dirt surface I'll be staying away from many of the Euro Classic contenders until I've seen more of them.  Twice Over (GB) ran a great race last year but I couldn't bet him at 28/1 given the surface questions.

-Summer Bird is retired, so betting him at 7/1 wouldn't get you a whole lot.

-Gio Ponti at 12/1?  Again, way too low for a horse turf horse that

-General Quarters at 60/1...now there's an interesting proposition.  After winning a turf race on the Derby undercard his connections stated they were pointing toward the Arlington Million.  Then he came back and ran in the Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill where he ran a solid race.  He'd be a long shot in the Classic but if these future odds were to slide up in to the 75/1, maybe a bit higher, he might be worth a shot.