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$517,127 Pick 6 Carryover at Hollywood Park

Yesterday's Pick 6 sequence at Hollywood Park kicked off with a $159.20 winner (4-Living Word).  That long shot winner combined with the upset of Rail Trip in the Hollywood Gold Cup was enough to trigger a $500,000+ carryover into today's card.  

The Pick 6 today will include the following races:

Race 4: $40k Claiming, 1 mile on turf (6 horse field)
Race 5: $12.5k Claiming, 7 furlongs (10)
Race 6: $32k Maiden Claiming, 6 furlongs (9)
Race 7: Allowance N1X, 6 furlongs (7)
Race 8: Landaluce Stakes, 6 furlongs (8)
Race 9: MdSpWt (CA-bred), 5 1/2 furlongs (10)

The sequence kicks off with the smallest field of the six races and a gelding that looks like he could be very heavily bet.  Morning line favorite 6-Fire Break (2/1) is coming in off of a win against $32k competition at a mile and a sixteenth and is also racing for the first time for trainer Bill Morey.  Over the last five years, Morey is a phenomenal 35% with horses running first time off the claim (119-for-341) and is "In The Money" 74% of the time.  This year at Hollywood he is a perfect 4-for-4 with that move with an ROI of $5.60.  

The second and third legs look like good spots to spread as both fields are filled with a plethora of horses that seem to have a decent chance to finish in the top spot.  I do like 5-Boomtown (5/1) a little bit in Race 6 as his form is dimmed a bit by the try over the turf last time out.  Prior to that he ran over the main track at this same Maiden Claming level in mid-May and showed very good early speed before fading to fifth at the wire.  He was only beaten by a length and three-quarters that day.  He could represent a big of value on the board.

Race 7...eh, if I was playing this sequence I'd have to seriously work to pare down this group.  2-Scored is coming in off of a long layoff but has been working like a freight train for his 2010 debut.  4-Mesa Thunder has run decent races since shipping down to Hollywood from Golden Gate in April but hasn't been able to get into the winner's circle.  6-Mensa Hat (7/2) is 3-for-23 lifetime and is certainly not a gelding you'd want to pin all of your Pick 6 hopes on.  And morning line favorite 7-Imco Spirit (IRE) (5/2) hasn't won a race since shipping to the United States last October.  Looks like a good race to hit the "ALL" button if you have the bankroll flexibility.

The six race sequence finishes up with two races for juveniles: the Landaluce Stakes for two year old fillies and a Maiden Special Weight for Cal-breds.  The Landaluce looks like a two filly race on paper as 1-Belleofthebridle and 2-Dawnie Macho both roll into the race off of very strong performance relative to the rest of the field.  Either of those two fillies appear to be likely winners.

The Maiden Special has a field of ten: seven colts with either one or two lifetime starts and three which are first time starters.  2-Stormin Rae (2/1) was 2nd last time out at the same level at the same track and will take the majority of the action but this field is pretty weak from top to bottom so it's tough to consider any horse a "lock".