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2010 Saratoga: Day 7

Results: Saratoga - Day 6 (July 29, 2010) 
Results: Saratoga - Day 5 (July 28, 2010)

Entries: Saratoga - Day 7 (July 30, 2010)


Race 3: OC 50k/N2X, 1 1/8 miles, 3&up, Fillies & Mares

The smallest field of the day still features what looks to be a pretty competitive race. 

I prefer the Bill Mott filly in this spot, 2-Film Charm (3/1), who won going a mile on the main track at Gulfstream in early February only to flop badly in her next start when trying turf for the first time at Keeneland.  I'm going to draw a line through that last one and instead focus on the fact that this filly has run at a mile twice in her career and put up decent efforts both times.  This will be her first try at turn turn on dirt (both previous miles were one-turn affairs), but her tactical speed should be an asset in this spot.


Race 4: Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ furlongs (Turf), 2yo, Fillies, NY-bred

There isn't a whole lot to choose from in this turf sprint for maiden juvenile fillies, but I like the looks of the first time starter for Michael Maker, 6-Ravingaboutkitten (7/2), another Ramsey-owned, Kitten's Joy sired juvenile on the lawn.  The turf breeding can't get much stronger than what this filly has in the bloodlines: sired by Kitten's Joy out of a Dynaformer mare.  The dam, Raving, won 2-of-4 in her career, with both wins coming on the lawn, although her off-spring have tried the turf sparingly (3-of-34 starts).  Maker is off to a hot start and he and jockey Julien Leparoux hit at a little over 20% when they team up.


Race 6: Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 miles (Turf), 2yo, Fillies

Another race for maiden juvenile fillies on the lawn but this one will be run at two turns on the outer turf course.  This race is a good chance to see a nice assortment of expensive horse flesh: 1-Praviana ($140,000 purchase at auction), 2-Grand Style ($250,000), and 10-Artisanal ($275,000) all commanded a solid price in the sales ring.

7-Arch Support (3/1) just missed while sprinting on the Belmont turf course last time out and she should find herself either on or right off the lead today with the stretch out in distance.  Contessa worked her seven furlongs on the turf last week and she could be tough to get by if the rest of the field lets her get loose on the lead.

5-Puzzling (9/2) seems a bit of an underlay in this race given the fact that Ghostzapper first time starters have had difficulty finding the winners circle.  Combine the pedigree questions with the fact that McGaughey is 7-for-133 over the past five years with first time starters (7%, $1.18 ROI), and this filly seems to be an unlikely winner.  One consolation, however, is that Shug is much better with first time starters on the turf (5-for-35, 14%, $3.37 ROI), than he is with them on the dirt.  Still, 9/2 seems a bit short of a price for this filly.

2-Grand Style (15/1) is an expensive filly with a dull work tab, so-so trainer numbers, and decent turf pedigree.  The odds board might give us a better clue as to her chances.

Richard Dutrow's 9-Believe in A.P. (8/1) broke poorly from the gate last time out in a 5 furlong MdSpWt at Belmont, Dutrow's numbers are pretty good with horses making their second career start, although he's a bit light with first time turf runners (6-for-91, 7%, $0.45 ROI) over the past five years.  If Leparoux can simply get this filly out of the starting gate cleanly, she should have a much better chance at success.