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2010 Saratoga: Day 11

Main Track: Good
Turf Course: Good (Race 5 - Off the Turf)
Turf Rail: Inner - 0 ft, Mellon - 0 ft.

Entries: Saratoga - Day 11 (August 4th, 2010)

Race 1: N1X Allowance, 1 miles (Inner Turf), 3&up, NY-bred

I don't know that I really love this race all that much but I do think there is a decent value play to be found in the 5-Barrel of Love (6/1).  The three year old colt by Not For Love our of a Broad Brush mare has done nothing but sprint since making his debut at the Big A back on April 11th.  He's come from off the pace in his sprint efforts but if you check out his internal splits you see a colt that has some good early speed in his arsenal.  If he flashes that speed today he should be able to position himself in a good spot early on.  Additionally, he's drawn in the middle of the field so he shouldn't have to worry about getting pinched down on the hedge.

Race 2: Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ furlongs (Turf), 3&up

I like a bit of a price in this spot with the 5-Kidd (GER) (12/1), a first time starter sired by Dashing Blade (GB) out of a Lomitas (GB) mare.  His morning work tab has been ultra consistent since they got him back on the track in mid-June.  It looks like the connections were going to try and get him into his debut race as a two year old but ran into some problems that forced them to put him on the shelf for almost eight months. Since he's been back in training he's put in quick work after quick work at Belmont and he looks like he could be ready to fire first time out of the gate.

Race 9: Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 miles (Turf), 2yo

The ML odds 9-Silver Medallion (7/2) seem a bit low for a colt with his turf pedigree.  His dam never tried the lawn and but his siblings have won eight times on the green.  However, seven of those eight wins were recorded by his half sister, Sweet Talker (Stormin Fever), so it remains to be seen whether he really wants to run on the grass.  Chad Brown has won with three of five first time starters at Saratoga this meet, although one of his two loses was a turf route.  It's a tough call on this colt but I think the odds suggest finding value elsewhere.

At first glance there is a bunch to like about the 7-Love That Dude (8/1); Wesley Ward is strong with first time starters, two year olds, and first time turfers, plus this colt will get Gomez in the irons for his debut.  Throw in back-to-back bullet works in the morning (including the last one over the Saratoga turf course) and 8/1 odds and Love That Dude could be a very nice play in this spot.  Ward hasn't had the best meet at Saratoga this summer as he's 0-for-9 overall and 0-for-4 with firsters, but maybe this gelding will help him get it turned around.