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Derby Preps and Gulfstream Payouts: Monday Housekeeping

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I happy Monday morning to everyone.  I hope your weekend was relaxing and (if you were playing the races) profitable.  I updated both the Gulfstream payouts and 2011 Triple Crown Prep Race files this morning.  A link to each file can be found below and are always available on the left sidebar.

Gulfstream Park Payouts 2011

2011 Triple Crown Prep Races

The Derby trail is slowly starting to get into gear; Santa Anita held their first three-year-old graded stake on Saturday and the next two weeks will see Fair Grounds and Gulfstream get into the action.  The Lecomte will run next weekend with the Holy Bull the following a week later.  Things pick up as we move into February with eight preps on the calendar.  Below are the upcoming preps over the next monte and a half:

Date

Track

Race

Gr.

Dist.

 Graded Earnings

22-Jan

FG

Lecomte

III

8.0

$100,000

30-Jan

GP

Holy Bull

III

8.0

$300,000

12-Feb

GG

El Camino Real

III

9.0

$200,000

12-Feb

SA

Robert B. Lewis

II

9.0

$250,000

12-Feb

TAM

Sam F. Davis

III

8.5

$225,000

19-Feb

FG

Risen Star

II

8.5

$300,000

20-Feb

SA

San Vicente

II

7.0

$150,000

21-Feb

OP

Southwest

III

8.0

$250,000

26-Feb

GP

Fountain of Youth

II

9.0

$400,000

26-Feb

GP

Hutcheson

II

7.0

$150,000


A few additional notes on the payouts at Gulfstream:

-As I mentioned a week or so ago, the official charts list the Pick 4 payouts to the $1 base bet when the minimum is actually $0.50.  That's not a huge deal but it does serve to inflate the perceived value of the bet and seems a bit odd considering that the charts list the payouts for the Pick 5 and the Pick 6 to their minimum base ($0.50 and $0.10, respectively).  However, yesterday's charts list the late Pick 4 to the $0.50 payout instead of the $1.  I'm not sure why they made this switch but it's the first time all meet that a Pick 4 payout was displayed to the minimum bet.

-Speaking of the Pick 4, the early sequence has paid over $1,000 only three of the ten days but the last four races have seen a $1,000+ payout seven out of ten times including five payouts over $2,000.  Not bad for a $0.50 base bet.

-Another curious matter with the Gulfstream charts is the carryovers for the Pick 5 and Pick 6, particularly the Pick 6.  If you look at the spreadsheet and go to the Pick 6 section you'll the carryover numbers and the total pool numbers look completely out of whack. In fact, the carryover is exceeding the "total pool" every single day, which tells me that the pool number is not the total but the non-carryover total.  I would create a column to add the numbers together to identify the true total pool but I'm trying to find confirmation to the total Pick 6 pools.  

Regardless of how the numbers are put together, the Pick 6 carryover has started to grow at a decent clip in recent days.  The pool will continue to carryover until there is one unique winner of the bet, which (as Steven Crist recently pointed out in the DRF) means you don't want to ever play the bet beyond the minimum $0.10; you don't want to hit is multiple times because any multiple winners, even if it's the same person (which the track would really have no way of knowing) would cause a carryover.  

The carryover for today's sequence is $93,000.