2011 Kentucky Derby Future Odds

Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager won't open for several weeks but some Vegas casinos have offered future bets on the Derby since before the Breeders' Cup.  Below the jump you will find a list of the open/current future book odds for a selection of 2011 Kentucky Derby challengers.  You can find the complete Kentucky Derby Future Odds, as offered by the Wynn Las Vegas, at this link: 2011 Kentucky Derby Vegas Future Odds (via Brisnet.com).

A few of thoughts on the odds:

- I mentioned Tapizar as a horse I liked for a future wager back in December, a thought that is apparently not alone given the slashing of his future odds 60/1 to 8/1.  The December 14^th odds were nice.  The current odds... not so much.

- Dialed In, who will make his three-year-old debut this Sunday in the Holy Bull, saw his odds drop from 40/1 to 25/1.  Now is the time to act on this colt if you're looking to get a piece of him for the Derby.  If he were to win on Sunday his odds will likely get cut in half.  25/1 isn't as nice as 40/1 but I'm surprised it's not a bit worse.

- Uncle Mo is obviously seeing a decent amount of money comes his way as his odds dropped from 6/1 to 4/1, and while 4/1 is probably higher than you'll get on Uncle Mo in the Derby (assuming he makes it there and has a relatively successful prep season) those odds are way too short given the risk associated with betting on a horse this far out. 

- The last time I posted this list I didn't even look up Soldat's odds.  He now sits at 40/1.

- A relative newcomer to the list is Washington's Rules, a son or Roman Ruler out of a Silver Charm mare (Petite Charme).  Washington's Rules broke his maiden last Saturday in the fifth race at Gulfstream Park in a off-the-turf one mile MSW and, visually, it was a very, very nice performance.   However, the race came over a "Good" track and a field of horses that were pointed to a race on the lawn.  And while he displayed an off-the-pace style at Gulfstream (something he didn't show in his debut at Saratgoa in August) it's hard to tell whether that's his true running style or a result of the surface condition.  In short, he's a horse to keep an eye on but one with a bunch of questions marks. 

Wasington's Rules sits at 85/1 on the future board.  Stay Thirsty, the horse that beat Washington's Rules in his debut at Saratoga, is currently at 40/1.

An additional note on the maiden race at Satartoga back on August 14^th won by Stay Thirsty: with Washington's Rules winning on the 22^nd that makes two starters from that race to win at next asking.  Heisman, who finished 6^th to Stay Thirsty at Saratoga, won next out at Belmont in mid-September.  Additionally, 4th place Orsonian and 8^th place Brock have yet to make their next starts following that race.

-Frankel at 75/1.  Oooookay. 

The only reason I can see why the Wynn is offering odds on Frankel (England's champion two-year-old for 2010) is because somebody asked for it.  There is a zero percent chance that his connections would even think about running in the Derby.  Frankel is currently listed as the betting favorite by English bookmakers for the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket in April (which occurs one week before the Derby and which I will have the pleasure of attending this year); he's also considered a favorite for the Epsom Derby. 

While Derby future bets are high-risk, low probability wagers, a bet on Frankel to win the 2011 Kentucky Derby is akin to flushing your money down the toilet.