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Monday Thoughts: Gulfstream, Japan, and Kentucky Derby Future Odds

Union Rags and Hansen are the top two betting interests for the 2012 Kentucky Derby, according to the Wynn Las Vegas Derby Future Book.
Union Rags and Hansen are the top two betting interests for the 2012 Kentucky Derby, according to the Wynn Las Vegas Derby Future Book.

I was out of town again this past weekend visiting some friends back in the Midwest, so I missed opening day at Gulfstream and Tampa Bay Downs. The early opening of Gulfstream still seems a little out of place to me; I'm used to gearing up for Gulfstream right after Christmas.

While I was sitting in O'Hare for a five hour layover I was thinking that an airport OTB would be a very nice option. What I should have done is jumped in a cab and gone over to the Arlington Park OTB, bet a few races, and then hurried back over to O'Hare in time for my connecting flight. Oh, the trials and tribulations of a horse player!

Some random thoughts on this Monday morning:

  • I'm going to attempt to track the Gulfstream $0.50 Pick 5 payouts again this meet, hopefully the pool, carryover, and payout information will be easier to follow this meet as opposed to last year. I'll have a link to a tracking spreadsheet in the next couple of days.
  • Transcend followed in the footsteps of Japan Cup winner Buena Vista (JPN) by repeating in the 2012 Japan Dirt Cup this past weekend. [Buena Vista crossed the finish line first in 2010 but was DQ'd, and then finished first again in 2011.]
  • Weemissfrankie, third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies last month at Churchill Downs, will run in Saturday's Grade 1 Starlet Stakes at Hollywood Park.
  • The race book at the Wynn Las Vegas has updated their future book for the 2012 Kentucky Derby, always a fun exercise when we are over five months away from the race. Breeders' Cup Juvenile runner-up Union Rags tops the future book at odds of 8/1, down from his opening line of 60/1. The horse that beat him in the Juvenile, Hansen, sits in the second spot at odds of 18/1, down from an opening of 250/1.

    Of course, given how far out from the Derby we are right now, and the difficult path ahead for the majority of horses to even make to Louisville on the first Saturday in May, future books tend to skew more towards those horses that appear likely to just make the starting gate. The top three on the list - Union Rags, Hansen, and Creative Cause - all have a good amount of graded earnings and are in good position to make the Derby, provided they move forward in 2012. Additionally, Delta Jackpot winner Sabercat, well down the list at 75/1, has earned plenty of money to get him in the Derby.

    Bob Baffert's Drill is currently at 75/1 at the Wynn, odds that seem too low to me for a horse that still hasn't shown he can win on a conventional dirt surface.

    Below is a snapshot of the horses on the future book that have seen movement in their odds in the last several weeks. You can view the complete list at Brisnet.
Horse Open 11/28
Union Rags 60/1 8/1
Hansen 250/1 18/1
Creative Cause 125/1 20/1
Gemologist 150/1 25/1
Ever So Lucky 125/1 35/1
El Padrino 250/1 35/1
Secret Circle 150/1 35/1
Fire On Ice 50/1 40/1
Hierro 225/1 50/1
Consortium 75/1 50/1
Liaison 275/1 50/1
So Brilliant 300/1 50/1
O'Prado Again 200/1 50/1
Timely Tally 250/1 60/1
Alpha 50/1 75/1
Festive Spirit 175/1 75/1
Dullahan 200/1 75/1
Motor City 350/1 75/1
Sabercat 350/1 75/1
Unbridlers Note 150/1 75/1
Currency Swap 100/1 85/1
Dabirsim 125/1 85/1
Drill 150/1 85/1
Stat 175/1 85/1
Take Charge Indy 150/1 85/1
Da Vinci 125/1 100/1
Optimizer 225/1 100/1
Clearly A Cowboy 225/1 125/1
Casual Trick 300/1 125/1
My Adonis 325/1 125/1
My Miss Aurelia 125/1 125/1
Rousing Sermon 300/1 125/1
Majestic City 225/1 150/1
Maritimer 275/1 150/1
Souper Speedy 300/1 150/1
Stirred up 275/1 150/1
Tritap 250/1 150/1
Shared Property 400/1 175/1
Power 250/1 175/1