|5||1-Bella Moneta||$7.00||1-Bella Moneta||5/2|
|6||4-Aim and Fire||$4.40||4-Aim and Fire||6/5|
|7||8-Adios Charlie||$3.00||8-Adios Charlie||1/2|
|8||11-Dixie's Sandals||$9.60||11-Dixie's Sandals||7/2|
|9||10-Choice Play||$5.20||10-Choice Play||8/5|
-Leg 1 gets off toe a big start as 7-Hyphen pulls the upset at 8/1 over the heavy 3/5 favorite, 10-Suave Jazz.
-Not a good start to the day for jockey Paco Lopez. In race two he finished 3rd with 3/5 favorite 4-Upfrontndangerous and in race 4 he finished dead last with 3/5 favorite Suave Jazz. Two odds on favorites and nothing to show for it. Not good.
-Leg 2 comes up chalky as the first-time-Wolfson horse, 1-Bella Moneta, wins for fun at 5/2.
-More of the same in Leg 3 as the 6/5 favorite, 4-Aim and Fire, clips heels in the early part of the race, re-established himself, and came again in the stretch to score by almost two lengths. Aim and Fire was tons the best in this race after an awful trip.
-It looks like this Pick Six is going to carryover into Thursday as it's been a parade of favorites since the first race. 8-Adios Charlie and 11-Dixie's Sandals are the third and fourth straight crowd picks to win.
-Another winning favorite (10-Choice Play), the fifth straight on the day, keys a $749,637 carryover into Thursday's Rainbow Six.
ORIGINAL POST: I spent some time going through the PPs for today's Pick Six carryover at Gulfstream Park, a sequence that looks either really, really hard or really, really easy. Several of the fields contain short-priced horses that appear to be very strong contenders while the last two on the card seem to ripe for a couple of bombs. Below is a quick look at the sequence.
(UPDATE: Lots of changes after significant rain in south Florida.)
-In the first leg (4th race), 10-Suave Jazz (5/2) runs first time off the claim for Nick Canani and is coming off a win at this level last time out. Canani is 46-for-135 (34%) over the last five years with horses running first time after a claim (69% ITM). Suave Jazz appears to be one of the more solid favorites in the sequence.
-The second leg (5th race) is one of those brutal turf dash affairs that seems to find their way in to every Pick Six, Five and Four sequence. Like the first leg, this field features an first-off-the-claim horse for a trainer that excels with that move. 1-Bella Moneta (5/2) finished second in an open company $32k claimer last time out, a race in which he was claimed by Marty Wolfson from the the above mentioned Nick Canani. Wolfson rarely claims horses but when he does, watch out; he's 8-for-15 with the move over the last five years (53%) with a huge $2 ROI of $6.34. When Wolfson claims a horse, they are ready to run next tie out.
-The third leg of the Pick Six has a little more uncertainty than the other two races (as most low-level maiden claimers do), but still contains a low-priced favorite that stands out on paper. 4-Aim and Fire (8/5) hasn't come close to winning any of his three previous starts but each of those were against much stiffer competition (he debuted against Maiden Special Weights and the ran twice against $50k maiden claimers). He's taking a severe price-cut and faces off against a field that has shown little in their previous efforts.
-Like the previous races, the fourth leg again features a low-priced favorite that looks really strong when compared to the rest of his rivals. 8-Adios Charlie (5/2) debuted against Maiden Special Weight company way back on October 2nd at Belmont Park where he missed by a length at the wire against a decent group of juveniles. The show horse came back to win a Maiden Special Weight at Gulfstream on March 12th, while the winner finished 5th in a pair of graded stakes races (G2-Nashua and G2-Tampa Bay Derby). If Stanley Hough has Adios Charlie ready to run today (and he's decent with layoff horses), he'll be tough to beat.
-The fifth leg (8th race) begins the first of back-to-back turf routes - one with the rail at 24 feet, the other at 84 feet. Unlike the previous four races, this race might just be a spot where you can catch a bit of a price. 10-Sounds Familiar (7/2) grabs morning line favoritism but he's by no means a lock in this spot as he's stepping up to $50k N2L after just missing against the same condition at a $30k price tag. If you don't think the favorite can get it done the race becomes wide-open, full of horses that possess a mix of positive and negative attributes:
- 7-Aregulartionhottie (10/1) ran well in his first try on grass last time out but he'll try two-turns for the first time.
- 6-Ithinkihadthatone (6/1) ran well against N1X-ers last spring but she's been off since May 29th.
- 11-Dixie's Sandals (4/1) looked good breaking her maiden at Gulfstream on March 5th and might have found the perfect spot to post a quick 2nd win.
-The final leg of the Pick Six is, in my opinion, a brutally tough field of $30k N3L claimers, many of which are sporting very poor lifetime records. In an almost throwing-darts-at-the-board philosophy, I like the chances of a couple of fillies in this spot, both of which are an awful 2-for-26 lifetime.
2-Miss Olivia Rae (6/1) will try this level for the third straight time after losing by a length and a half her last two times out. In both of those races she showed a very quick turn of foot in the closing stages (29.19 and 28.25 splits for the final 3/16ths). I don't love deep closes with the rail out at 84 feet but there appears to be enough pace to soften up the field by the time they turn for home.
The 10-Choice Play (3/1) lost by a brutal 39 1/4 lengths last time out but that race was against $100k claimers and on the main track. She's 2-for-26 lifetime and it's hard to get behind any mare with those numbers, but she's dropping down to her lowest claiming level and she's shown signs of life against this class-level in the past.
If the first few races of the sequence turn out as chalky as they look on paper, we are probably looking at another carryover situation for Thursday.