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BREEDERS' CUP 2011: A Look at the Future Odds

LOUISVILLE, KY - APRIL 30:  A view of Churchill Downs on April 30, 2010 in Louisville, Kentucky.  (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
LOUISVILLE, KY - APRIL 30: A view of Churchill Downs on April 30, 2010 in Louisville, Kentucky. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
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With the Triple Crown behind us, bookmakers have begun to offer up future odds on the 2011 Breeders' Cup Classic. At a minimum, future odds can be a bit of action of pique your interest several months away from a big event.  At best, they can bring back a nice score if you are lucky enough to pick out a winner.

I'm going to tag this post and bring it back to the front page following the Breeders' Cup Classic in November so we can compare the odds of the winning horses on the day of the race with what was offered month before the event.

If you've never made a future bet before, and are thinking of jumping in at some point, remember to demand value.  Don't take odds on a horse that are likely to be lower than what you'll get on the day of the race itself.  The uncertainty of whether the horse will even be in the race in five or six months time is best mitigated with odds that are overly generous given the horses talent and likelihood for success.

You can take a look at the full list of Breeders' Cup Classic future odds offered from BoDog below the jump, but here are a few thoughts of mine after reviewing the odds:

  • When you consider that Crown of Thorns has laid an egg both times he's tried a dirt surface, 12/1 odds are ridiculously low.
  • Animal Kingdom at 20/1 seems about right given the current circumstances, but no way would I have Dialed In at the same 20/1 and Shackleford all the way down at 40/1.  I suppose that's due to distance considerations but I would think, given what we saw in the Derby and Preakness, that the 10 furlongs over a course he's shown to like, is well within Shack's abilities. Furthermore, both colts are heavily dependent on pace - Shack wants to go gate-to-wire with soft fractions, while Dialed In needs/desires a pace meltdown to set him up for his late kick - so I'm not sure the odds differential really speaks to their real chances.

    While it's really hard to predict who will be better five months from now, Shackleford being offered at twice the odds of a horse like Dialed In seems out of whack.  If I was in Vegas right now, I'd put a small future wager on Shack at 40/1 but I wouldn't touch Dialed In (despite how much I liked him in the run-up to the Derby).
  • BoDog has Frankel (GB) listed as 30/1 for the Classic. Eh, way too low given the risk and uncertainty.
  • Dubai World Cup winner Victoire Pisa (JPN) is listed at 100/1.  I haven't a clue if his connections are even considering the Classic, but if they are, he'd make an interesting play. 
  • I think some of the best future odds for the Classic are with the possible filly runners. Sure, you're taking a risk that they won't even run in the Classic (and run in Distaff, instead), but that's a risk with all future wager. But when you consider the sad state of the older horse division, combined with the uncertainty of the three-year-olds (we haven't had good records of the 3yos even making it to the Classic the past few years), it might just be a better bet to look at a filly or mare to crash the party.  And all three fillies in the future book warrant a long look.

    60/1 Blind Luck
    25/1 Havre de Grace

    Blind Luck is the more interesting of the two for me, although I could be tempted to make a play on either of those odds. She's never tried 10 furlongs but, when you consider her running style, she'd probably fare well at the distance.

2011 Breeders' Cup Classic Future Odds

Odds Horse
7/1 Twirling Candy
12/1 Crown of Thorns
18/1 Richard's Kid
20/1 Animal Kingdom
20/1 Dialed In
20/1 First Dude
20/1 Fly Down
20/1 Gio Ponti
20/1 Twice Over
25/1 Etched
25/1 Havre De Grace
25/1 Nehro
25/1 Sucessful Dan
25/1 Tizway
28/1 Giant Oak
30/1 Frankel (GB)
30/1 Mission Impazible
30/1 Morning Line
30/1 Regal Ransom
30/1 Sidneys Candy
30/1 So You Think
30/1 Uncle Mo
35/1 Apart
35/1 Trappe Shot
40/1 I Want Revenge
40/1 Jaycito
40/1 Rail Trip
40/1 Setsuko
40/1 Shackleford
40/1 Win Willy
45/1 Astrology
45/1 Haynesfield
45/1 Soaring Empire
50/1 Tapizar
50/1 To Honor and Serve
60/1 Alternation
60/1 Bind
60/1 Blind Luck
60/1 Boys At Tosconova
60/1 Duke of Mischief
60/1 Game on Dude
60/1 Master of Hounds
60/1 Mucho Macho Man
60/1 Stay Thirsty
60/1 Tobys Corner
60/1 Transcent
65/1 Cape Blanco
65/1 Soldat
75/1 Brilliant Speed
75/1 Drosselmeyer
75/1 Gourmet Dinner
75/1 Macleans Music
75/1 Midnight Interlude
75/1 Rule
85/1 Biondetti
85/1 Bold Silvano
85/1 Coil
85/1 The Factor
100/1 Anthony's Cross
100/1 Casamento
100/1 Industry Leader
100/1 Musir
100/1 Pants On Fire
100/1 Roderic Oconnor (IRE)
100/1 Tech Fall
100/1 Unrivaled Belle
100/1 Victoire Pisa (JPN)
125/1 Brethren
125/1 Elite Alex
125/1 JP's Gusto
125/1 Santiva