BREEDERS' CUP 2011: A Look at the Future Odds

With the Triple Crown behind us, bookmakers have begun to offer up future odds on the 2011 Breeders' Cup Classic. At a minimum, future odds can be a bit of action of pique your interest several months away from a big event.  At best, they can bring back a nice score if you are lucky enough to pick out a winner.

I'm going to tag this post and bring it back to the front page following the Breeders' Cup Classic in November so we can compare the odds of the winning horses on the day of the race with what was offered month before the event.

If you've never made a future bet before, and are thinking of jumping in at some point, remember to demand value.  Don't take odds on a horse that are likely to be lower than what you'll get on the day of the race itself.  The uncertainty of whether the horse will even be in the race in five or six months time is best mitigated with odds that are overly generous given the horses talent and likelihood for success.

You can take a look at the full list of Breeders' Cup Classic future odds offered from BoDog below the jump, but here are a few thoughts of mine after reviewing the odds:

• When you consider that Crown of Thorns has laid an egg both times he's tried a dirt surface, 12/1 odds are ridiculously low.
• Animal Kingdom at 20/1 seems about right given the current circumstances, but no way would I have Dialed In at the same 20/1 and Shackleford all the way down at 40/1.  I suppose that's due to distance considerations but I would think, given what we saw in the Derby and Preakness, that the 10 furlongs over a course he's shown to like, is well within Shack's abilities. Furthermore, both colts are heavily dependent on pace - Shack wants to go gate-to-wire with soft fractions, while Dialed In needs/desires a pace meltdown to set him up for his late kick - so I'm not sure the odds differential really speaks to their real chances.
  
  While it's really hard to predict who will be better five months from now, Shackleford being offered at twice the odds of a horse like Dialed In seems out of whack.  If I was in Vegas right now, I'd put a small future wager on Shack at 40/1 but I wouldn't touch Dialed In (despite how much I liked him in the run-up to the Derby).
• BoDog has Frankel (GB) listed as 30/1 for the Classic. Eh, way too low given the risk and uncertainty.
  
• Dubai World Cup winner Victoire Pisa (JPN) is listed at 100/1.  I haven't a clue if his connections are even considering the Classic, but if they are, he'd make an interesting play. 
• I think some of the best future odds for the Classic are with the possible filly runners. Sure, you're taking a risk that they won't even run in the Classic (and run in Distaff, instead), but that's a risk with all future wager. But when you consider the sad state of the older horse division, combined with the uncertainty of the three-year-olds (we haven't had good records of the 3yos even making it to the Classic the past few years), it might just be a better bet to look at a filly or mare to crash the party.  And all three fillies in the future book warrant a long look.
  
  60/1 Blind Luck
  25/1 Havre de Grace
  
  Blind Luck is the more interesting of the two for me, although I could be tempted to make a play on either of those odds. She's never tried 10 furlongs but, when you consider her running style, she'd probably fare well at the distance.
  

2011 Breeders' Cup Classic Future Odds