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Del Mar 2011: Two-turn races on the Polytrack

While it's probably too early to make a definitive statement regarding the tendencies of the main track at Del Mar during the 2011 meet, during the first two weeks we've seen a slightly different winning profile for horses going two-turns.  Prior to the start of the current meet, approximately 60% of the winners of two-turn races on the Polytrack have been more than two lengths back of the leaders after a 1/2 mile.  Additionally, just under 20% of all winners during that time were leading after a 1/2 mile. 

Through the first two weeks of the current meet, horses leading after a 1/2 mile in two-turn races on the main track are 5-for-13, a winning percentage that doubles the 2007 through 2010 trend.  We'll see if those numbers hold over the rest of the meet.

263 Polytrack Routes (2007-2010)
52 (19.8%): Leading after 1/2 mile
54 (20.5%): Within 2.0 lengths after 1/2 mile
157 (59.7): More than 2.0 lengths back after 1/2 mile

13 Polytrack Routes (2011)
5 (38.5%): Leading after 1/2 mile
2 (15.4%): Within 2.0 lengths after 1/2 mile
6 (46.2%): More than 2.0 lengths back after 1/2 mile