BREEDERS' CUP 2011: Training, not racing, to Louisville (Updated)

Update: At the bottom of the post I've added data of Breeders' Cup winners and their time off for every race since 2005.

Original Post: News from both coasts today indicated two horses will train up to the Breeders' Cup instead of running in a prep race sometime in the next two weeks.  Met Mile and Whitney winner Tizway was expected to run in next Saturday's Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, but a spiked fever will cause him to miss the race.  He will now train towards the Breeders' Cup Classic.

Out West, Twirling Candy will bypass the Grade 1 Goodwood at Santa Anita and also opt to train up to the Breeders' Cup.  Unlike Tizway, it appears that Twirling Candy is not suffering from a current injury or illness, but he did miss some training time earlier due to a bruised foot, as reported by the Daily Racing Form. Twirling Candy is expected to run in either the Classic or the Dirt Mile.

It remains to be seen whether or not a prep race will harm the chances of either of these horses at the Breeders' Cup, but I help thinking about Quality Road last year, a horse with obviously some distance questions, trying to also "train up" to the Classic, instead of running in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.  As you may recall, Quality Road finished last in the field of 12, over 29 lengths behind Blame and Zenyatta. He was the only horse in the Classic that hadn't had a race since September 25th.  The only other horse that didn't have a prep race in October was First Dude, and he finished 8th, over 10 lengths back.

Just looking at last year's results, it's not an easy thing to win at the Breeders' Cup without a race in October, let alone September. 

Below is a look as last year's Breeders' Cup winners and the date of their last race prior to running at Churchill Downs:

Last year, four horses won a Breeders' Cup race without the benefit of a race in October, but all three did run in September.  Additionally, Big Drama was the only horse to win off a layoff of nine weeks or more, something that both Tizway and Twirling Candy will be trying to duplicate. (Sprint contender Smiling Tiger will also come into the Breeders' Cup off of an extended layoff.) Will they be able to pull it off?

Below is the data for every winner since 2005.

Of the 69 races run at the Breeders' Cup since 2005, 52 have been won by horses with a race within 43 days (six weeks).  There were only seventeen winners with a greater than six week layoff, and only one, Invasor (ARG), with a layoff of longer than nine weeks.