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Get ready for a large data dump. Below is every BC Juvenile starter since 2006. Horses that I've subjectively considered to maintain or exceeded their 2 year old form are colored in green. Those colored in red, once again completely subjectively, have been deemed to have completely bombed out of being a notable racer.
BC Juv Race | Finish | Horse | Derby Runner? | 3yo Prep Wins | GSW post-Derby? | Notes |
2011 | 1st | Hansen | Y | G3-Gotham | G3-IA Derby | Retired to Stud at Ashford |
2011 | 2nd | Union Rags | Y | G2-Fountain of Youth | G1-Belmont | Retired to Stud at Gainesway |
2011 | 3rd | Creative Cause | Y | G2-San Felipe | No | Retired to Stud at Airdrie |
2011 | 4th | Dullahan | Y | G1-Blue Grass | G1-Pacific | SYNTHETIC BEAST |
2011 | 5th | Take Charge Indy | Y | G1-Florida Derby | No | 2nd in Clark 1st off layoff |
2011 | 6th | Crusade | None | No | Weight for Age runner in IRE | |
2011 | 7th | Fort Loudon | None | G3-Carry Back | Good GS horse | |
2011 | 8th | Optimizer | Y | None | G3-Kent Stakes | Ran in 2012 BC Turf (11th) |
2011 | 9th | Speightscity | None | None | Listed Stakes runner | |
2011 | 10th | Drill | Y | G2-San Vicente | None | Back in Training post layoff |
2011 | 11th | Alpha | G3-Withers | G1-Travers | Wins Slow Races | |
2011 | 12th | Daddy Long Legs | Y | G2-UAE Derby | None | Listed Stakes Runner in EUR |
2011 | 13th | Prospective | Y | G2-Tampa Bay | G3-Ohio Derby | Winning Listed Stakes |
2010 | 1st | Uncle Mo | Timely Writer | G2-Kelso | Sickness issues | |
2010 | 2nd | Boys At Tosconova | G1-Hopeful | None | Allowance Runner; G3 placed | |
2010 | 3rd | Rogue Romance | None | None | Allowance Runner | |
2010 | 4th | Biondetti | None | None | Eur/Dubai Runner | |
2010 | 5th | Stay Thirsty | Y | G3-Gotham | G1-Cigar Mile | Retired to Stud at Ashford |
2010 | 6th | J P's Gusto | None | None | Listed Stakes Winner | |
2010 | 7th | Jaycito | None | None | Allowance Runner | |
2010 | 8th | Riveting Reason | None | None | Only win is MSW | |
2010 | 9th | J. B.'s Thunder | None | None | Only competitive at 2yo | |
2010 | 10th | Murjan | None | None | Claimer | |
2009 | 1st | Vale Of York | None | None | Nothing, Crazy that he won | |
2009 | 2nd | Lookin At Lucky | Y | G2-Rebel | G1-Preakness | Champion |
2009 | 3rd | Noble's Promise | Y | None | G3-Aristides | Allowance Runner |
2009 | 4th | Piscitelli | None | None | Claimer | |
2009 | 5th | Aikenite | None | G2-Commonwealth | Good Stakes Horse | |
2009 | 6th | Beethoven (IRE) | None | G3-Dubai Derby | Ran in BC Mile; good horse | |
2009 | 7th | Radiohead | None | None | Allowance winner | |
2009 | 8th | William's Kitten | None | None | Claimer | |
2009 | 9th | Eskendereya | G1-Wood | None (Retired Prior to Derby) | Retired to Stud at Taylor Made | |
2009 | 10th | Alfred Nobel | None | None | Weight for Age runner in EUR | |
2009 | 11th | Pulsion | None | None | Allowance Winner | |
2009 | 12th | Aspire | None | None | Allowance Horse | |
2009 | 13th | D' Funnybone | G2-Swale | G2-Woody Stephens | Retired to Stud at Vinery-NY | |
2008 | 1st | Midshipman | None | None | Retired to Stud at Darley | |
2008 | 2nd | Square Eddie | None | None | Never won a stakes race post-2yo | |
2008 | 3rd | Street Hero | None | None | Never ran again after BC Juv; Sire | |
2008 | 4th | Terrain | None | None | No wins post-2yo | |
2008 | 5th | Pioneerof The Nile | Y | G1-SA Derby | None | Retired to Stud at Vinery |
2008 | 6th | West Side Bernie | Y | None | None | AOC Horse |
2008 | 7th | Gallant Son | G3-Inglewood | None | G3 Placed in 2012 | |
2008 | 8th | Silent Valor | None | None | Allowance Horse | |
2008 | 9th | Azul Leon | None | None | No wins post-2yo | |
2008 | 10th | Munnings | None | G2-Woody Stephens | Retired to Stand at Ashford | |
2008 | 11th | Bushranger | None | None | Weight for Age in EUR | |
2008 | 12th | Mine That Bird | Y (Winner) | None | None | FAST-Never the same after switching trainers |
2007 | 1st | War Pass | None | None | 2nd Wood Memorial; dead | |
2007 | 2nd | Pyro | Y | G2-LA Derby | G1-Forego | Good thru 4yo year; Standing in Japan |
2007 | 3rd | Kodiak Kowboy | None | G1-Cigar Mile | Great GSW; Standing at Vinery | |
2007 | 4th | Tale Of Ekati | Y | G1-Wood | G1-Cigar Mile | Standing at Darby Dan |
2007 | 5th | Z Humor | Y | G3-Delta Jackpot | None | Listed Stakes winner |
2007 | 6th | Old Man Buck | None | None | Gelding; Claimer | |
2007 | 7th | Overextended | None | None | Gelding; Claimer | |
2007 | 8th | Shore Do | None | None | Gelding; Claimer | |
2007 | 9th | Salute the Sarge | None | None | Only win post 2yo is listed stakes | |
2007 | 10th | Wicked Style | None | None | G2 placed | |
2007 | 11th | Globalization | None | None | Claimer | |
2006 | 1st | Street Sense | Y (Winner) | G3-Tampa Bay | G1-Travers | Champion everything |
2006 | 2nd | Circular Quay | Y | G2-LA Derby | G2-New Orleans | Sire in FL |
2006 | 3rd | Great Hunter | Y | G2-Robert. B Lewis | None | Sire in Venezuela |
2006 | 4th | Scat Daddy | Y | G1-Florida Derby | None (Retired post derby) | Rising Sire |
2006 | 5th | Stormello | Y | None | None | Only wins were at 2yo |
2006 | 6th | C P West | Y | None | None | Good Stakes Horse as 3yo |
2006 | 7th | U D Ghetto | None | None | Gelding; Claimer | |
2006 | 8th | King Of The Roxy | G2-Hucheson | None | Listed Stakes winner, good horse | |
2006 | 9th | Skip Code | None | None | Gelding; Claimer | |
2006 | 10th | Teuflesberg | Y | Southwest | G1-Woody Stephens | Sire |
2006 | 11th | Pegasus Wind | None | None | Only win was a MSW | |
2006 | 12th | Malt Magic | None | None | Allowance Horse | |
2006 | 13th | Got the Last Laugh | None | None | Allowance Horse, stakes placed | |
2006 | 14th | Principle Secret | None | None | Allowance Horse |
Well, the article tool keeps cutting this off, but there are 5 more horses, 3 of which are red, 1 (Teuflesberg) is of any note.
A few items of note:
- Every time you look at the horses foaled in 2008, it gets more and more disappointing. Only two BC Juvenile 2010 starters held their form and three were never heard of again in even allowance company.
- 18 horses maintained or exceeded their 2 year old form
- 17 horses completely bombed out of stakes company
- The Cigar Mile seems to literally be a stepping stone to being a sire
- A disproportionate number of horses here are stallions. This falls in line with Bull Hancock theory that a sire should be a winner at 2, for obvious reasons
- Only 2 winners of the KY Derby are amongst these 6 fields (Mine That Bird and Street Sense)
- 26 of 73 starters in the BC Juvenile won a 3yo Derby Prep Race
- 25 of 73 starters started in the Kentucky Derby
- 5 Derby starters from BC fields did not win a significant Derby Prep Race
- The only real positive correlation is that of the top 3 or 4 finishers in the race, at least 1 will show good form as a 3 year old and older.
Seeing that the biggest juvenile race in the country only places 33% of its field in the biggest 3 year old race which is just 6 months later, doesn't the Derby Qualifying System kind of make sense? Placing value on races that actually may indicate future success is a pretty solid idea instead of giving equal credit to dollars earned in restricted races that have sub-standard competition.
I wish there was less emphasis on these Juvenile races. They're fun, but they really do incentivize an asset (quick growth) that doesn't truly indicate ability. Surely, some of these 2 year old phenoms are world class in their own right, but so many are just big at an early age and not truly talented.