Relevancy of the Kentucky Derby Field as the Racing Year Progresses

WARNING: Another data dump lies beneath the narrative.

This does not include race day scratches. Again, my Green/Red shading scheme is based mostly on GSWs, but (as in the case of Animal Kingdom) is also based on the top end form they have shown and not always just wins. Yellow shading is a horse that did not have an opportunity to reach full potential and prior to showing they were Graded/Group material post KY Derby, but my guess is that given soundness, they would have been top notch. No color shading (grey/white) is listed stakes winners/competitive non-winners of Graded events.

Several key take aways:

• Since 2007, there have been 117 starters in the Kentucky Derby
• 51 have shown they are top end Graded/Group Stakes Horses with GSWs or great BC starts (43.6%)
• 13 were retired due to injury (11.1%)
• 25 were never competitive at the graded/group level again (21.4%)
• 28 get no color (23.9%)
• 41 are currently at stud throughout the world (35.0%)
  

But the really interesting fact is the dearth of BC success (measured in wins) of the KY Derby field:

• 34 KY Derby Starters eventually made a start in a Breeders' Cup event (29.1%)
• 23 ran in a BC event in their 3yo year (19.7%)
• Just three Kentucky Derby Starters have won Breeders' Cup events (2.6%)
  1. Trinniberg (2012 BC Sprint) (3yo year)
  2. Court Vision (2011 BC Mile) (6yo year)
  3. Curlin (2007 BC Classic) (3yo year)

There is definitely a very strong correlation between a start in the KY Derby and top end success, but like all things horse racing there is nothing close to a guarantee. I think the low numbers of BC winners is artificially suppressed by two factors: 1) Once you've established you have a high end 3yo, the incentives to take that colt to the breeding shed are immense; and 2) So many of the colts and fillies are just tired after a grueling 2yo campaign focused on the Run for the Roses that they need a break. You see such a significant number of these horses with zero entries after the Keeneland fall meet that there must be more than just coincidence needed to explain it. And honestly, I think that the rest is a good thing for racing.

(OK, time for a quick rant: I HATE northern winter racing with a passion. Even Turfway is just too cold. And Aqueduct? Ridiculous. Asking horses to run in such cold weather is just crazy, especially when you can relatively easily get to much warmer climates like Miami, Tampa, and even Hot Springs.)

Once you boil all of this down though, even the Derby has too many also-rans in its field when you consider the goal of the race is to get the best 20 possible entries into the field. Too many of the colts just racked up a ton of Graded Stakes money via two or three really nice showings in their 2yo year, but are basically non-competitive once the later foals and slower growers catch up. Not sure the best way to fix this, but the Derby Qualifying system certainly cannot hurt.

The question then becomes when do horses hit the optimal age where the best competition is available? May of year 3? June of year 3? Honestly, I'm not exactly sure what the race record will show. I know what the conventional thinking says, but I think I'll have to keep digging through the big races like this to find out for sure.

FINALLY A PROPERLY AND APPROPRIATELY FORMATTED TABLE! WITH COLORS AND EVERYTHING!!