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WARNING: Another data dump lies beneath the narrative.
This does not include race day scratches. Again, my Green/Red shading scheme is based mostly on GSWs, but (as in the case of Animal Kingdom) is also based on the top end form they have shown and not always just wins. Yellow shading is a horse that did not have an opportunity to reach full potential and prior to showing they were Graded/Group material post KY Derby, but my guess is that given soundness, they would have been top notch. No color shading (grey/white) is listed stakes winners/competitive non-winners of Graded events.
Several key take aways:
- Since 2007, there have been 117 starters in the Kentucky Derby
- 51 have shown they are top end Graded/Group Stakes Horses with GSWs or great BC starts (43.6%)
- 13 were retired due to injury (11.1%)
- 25 were never competitive at the graded/group level again (21.4%)
- 28 get no color (23.9%)
- 41 are currently at stud throughout the world (35.0%)
But the really interesting fact is the dearth of BC success (measured in wins) of the KY Derby field:
- 34 KY Derby Starters eventually made a start in a Breeders' Cup event (29.1%)
- 23 ran in a BC event in their 3yo year (19.7%)
- Just three Kentucky Derby Starters have won Breeders' Cup events (2.6%)
- Trinniberg (2012 BC Sprint) (3yo year)
- Court Vision (2011 BC Mile) (6yo year)
- Curlin (2007 BC Classic) (3yo year)
There is definitely a very strong correlation between a start in the KY Derby and top end success, but like all things horse racing there is nothing close to a guarantee. I think the low numbers of BC winners is artificially suppressed by two factors: 1) Once you've established you have a high end 3yo, the incentives to take that colt to the breeding shed are immense; and 2) So many of the colts and fillies are just tired after a grueling 2yo campaign focused on the Run for the Roses that they need a break. You see such a significant number of these horses with zero entries after the Keeneland fall meet that there must be more than just coincidence needed to explain it. And honestly, I think that the rest is a good thing for racing.
(OK, time for a quick rant: I HATE northern winter racing with a passion. Even Turfway is just too cold. And Aqueduct? Ridiculous. Asking horses to run in such cold weather is just crazy, especially when you can relatively easily get to much warmer climates like Miami, Tampa, and even Hot Springs.)
Once you boil all of this down though, even the Derby has too many also-rans in its field when you consider the goal of the race is to get the best 20 possible entries into the field. Too many of the colts just racked up a ton of Graded Stakes money via two or three really nice showings in their 2yo year, but are basically non-competitive once the later foals and slower growers catch up. Not sure the best way to fix this, but the Derby Qualifying system certainly cannot hurt.
The question then becomes when do horses hit the optimal age where the best competition is available? May of year 3? June of year 3? Honestly, I'm not exactly sure what the race record will show. I know what the conventional thinking says, but I think I'll have to keep digging through the big races like this to find out for sure.
FINALLY A PROPERLY AND APPROPRIATELY FORMATTED TABLE! WITH COLORS AND EVERYTHING!!
KY DERBY | Finish | Horse | BC Runner same year? | Non-JUV BC Runner EVER? | Post KY Derby GSWs | BC Race Finish (any Non-JUV year) |
Notes |
2012 | 1 | I'll Have Another | N | N | G1-Preakness | None | Retired Pre-Belmont; at stud in JPN |
2012 | 2 | Bodemeister | N | N | None | None | Retired due to shoulder injury; standing at WinStar |
2012 | 3 | Dullahan | Y | Y | G1-Pacific | 2012 BC Turf (9th) | Synthetic horse |
2012 | 4 | Went The Day Well | N | N | None | None | Has not run since Preakness |
2012 | 5 | Creative Cause | N | N | None | None | Retired with no wins post 3yo Preps |
2012 | 6 | Liaison | N | N | None | None | Not that good |
2012 | 7 | Union Rags | N | N | G1-Belmont | None | Retired prior to BC |
2012 | 8 | Rousing Sermon | N | N | None | None | Also ran on the West Coast Stakes Circuit this year |
2012 | 9 | Hansen | N | N | G3-IA Derby | None | Retired to Ashford Stud |
2012 | 10 | Daddy Nose Best | N | N | None | None | Can't hit board post-Derby Preps |
2012 | 11 | Optimizer | Y | Y | G3-Kent | 2012 BC Turf (11th) | Doesn't look like a G1 level horse |
2012 | 12 | Alpha | Y | Y | G1-Travers | 2012 BC Classic (12th) | Can only win slow races |
2012 | 13 | El Padrino | N | N | None | None | In Training as of SEP12, hasn't run since Derby |
2012 | 14 | Done Talking | N | N | None | None | Best form as 2yo, won IL Derby |
2012 | 15 | Sabercat | N | N | None | None | Has not run since Derby |
2012 | 16 | Gemologist | N | N | None | None | Retired post-Haskell; Standing at WinStar |
2012 | 17 | Trinniberg | Y | Y | G1-Woody Stephens | 2012 BC Sprint (1st) | Best Sprint Form |
2012 | 18 | Prospective | N | N | G3-Ohio Derby | None | Looks like productive stakes horse |
2012 | 19 | Take Charge Indy | N | N | None | None | Back off long layoff, 2nd in Clark |
2012 | DNF | Daddy Long Legs | N | N | None | None | Listed Stakes Runner in EUR |
2011 | 1 | Animal Kingdom | N | Y | None | 2012 BC Mile (2nd) | Shaping up to be great miler |
2011 | 2 | Nehro | N | N | None | None | Back off long layoff, GS placed |
2011 | 3 | Mucho Macho Man | N | Y | G2-Suburban | 2012 BC Classic (2nd) | Late really came into own in 2012 |
2011 | 4 | Shackleford | Y | Y | G1-Met Mile | 2011 BC Dirt Mile (2nd) | 2x Dirt Mile Runner; standing at Darby Dan |
2011 | 5 | Master of Hounds | N | N | G1-Jebel Hatta (Dubai) | None | Nice GSW in UAE |
2011 | 6 | Santiva | N | N | None | None | Allowance Runner now; can't stay healthy |
2011 | 7 | Brilliant Speed | N | Y | G3-Saranac | 2012 BC Classic (11th) | Nice Turf GSW |
2011 | 8 | Dialed In | N | N | None | None | Not that good |
2011 | 9 | Pants On Fire | N | N | G3-Pegasus | None | Good stakes horse |
2011 | 10 | Twice the Appeal | N | N | None | None | Low level stakes horse; can't hit board |
2011 | 11 | Soldat | N | N | None | None | AOC runner |
2011 | 12 | Stay Thirsty | Y | Y | G1-Cigar Mile | 2011 BC Classic (11th) | Retired to Ashford Stud |
2011 | 13 | Derby Kitten | N | N | None | None | AOC runner |
2011 | 14 | Decisive Moment | N | N | None | None | Listed Stakes winner |
2011 | 15 | Archarcharch | N | N | None | None | Retired post-Derby; Standing at Spendthrift |
2011 | 16 | Midnight Interlude | N | N | None | None | Listed Stakes Winner |
2011 | 17 | Twinspired | N | N | None | None | AOC runner |
2011 | 18 | Watch Me Go | N | N | None | None | Listed Stakes Winner |
2011 | 19 | Comma To The Top | N | N | None | None | Listed Stakes Winner |
2010 | 1 | Super Saver | N | N | None | None | Stands at WinStar |
2010 | 2 | Ice Box | Y | Y | None | 2011 BC Classic (8th) | Stands at Three Chimneys |
2010 | 3 | Paddy O'Prado | Y | Y | G1-Secretariat | 2010 BC Classic (5th) | Standing at Spendthrift |
2010 | 4 | Make Music for Me | N | N | None | None | AOC runner currently |
2010 | 5 | Noble's Promise | N | N | G3-Aristedes | None | Allowance Runner |
2010 | 6 | Lookin at Lucky | Y | Y | G1-Haskell | 2010 BC Classic (4th) | Champion |
2010 | 7 | Dublin | N | N | None | None | AOC before retired in 2010 |
2010 | 8 | Stately Victor | N | Y | None | 2011 BC Turf (5th) | Listed Stakes Winner |
2010 | 9 | Mission Impazible | N | N | G2-New Orleans | None | Competitive graded stakes horse |
2010 | 10 | Devil May Care | N | N | G1-Mother Goose | None | Filly in KY Derby; very very good |
2010 | 11 | American Lion | N | N | None | None | Soundness issues; long layoffs |
2010 | 12 | Jackson Bend | N | Y | G1-Carter | 2011 BC Sprint (3rd) | Very good GSW |
2010 | 13 | Discreetly Mine | N | N | G1-King's Bishop | None | Standing at Lane's End |
2010 | 14 | Dean's Kitten | N | Y | None | 2011 BC Turf (9th) | Lots of places in G2/3 races |
2010 | 15 | Conveyance | N | N | None | None | Graded Stakes Runner in UAE |
2010 | 16 | Homeboykris | N | N | None | None | Gelding; AOC runner |
2010 | 17 | Sidney's Candy | Y | Y | G2-Fourstardave | 2010/2011 BC Mile (6th) | Standing at WinStar Farm |
2010 | 18 | Line of David | N | N | None | None | Never Started Again |
2010 | 19 | Awesome Act | N | N | None | None | AOC runner |
2009 | 1 | Mine That Bird | Y | Y | None | 2009 BC Classic (9th) | Never the same after switching trainers |
2009 | 2 | Pioneerof the Nile | N | N | None | None | Standing at Vinery |
2009 | 3 | Musket Man | N | Y | None | 2010 BC Classic (10th) | Standing in Louisiana |
2009 | 4 | Papa Clem | N | N | G2-San Fernando | None | Standing in California |
2009 | 5 | Chocolate Candy | Y | Y | None | 2009 Dirt Mile (5th) | Dead; Stood in Canada |
2009 | 6 | Summer Bird | Y | Y | G1-Jockey Club Gold Cup | 2009 BC Classic (4th) | Standing in JPN |
2009 | 7 | Join in the Dance | Y | Y | None | 2009 BC Sprint (9th) | Dropped to AOC company |
2009 | 8 | Regal Ransom | Y | Y | G2-Super Derby | 2009 BC Classic (8th) | Standing at Darley KY |
2009 | 9 | West Side Bernie | N | N | None | None | AOC horse |
2009 | 10 | General Quarters | N | N | G1-Woodford | None | Very good GSW on the grass |
2009 | 11 | Dunkirk | N | N | None | None | Standing at Ashford Stud |
2009 | 12 | Hold Me Back | N | N | G3-Dominion Day | None | Standing at WinStar Farm |
2009 | 13 | Advice | N | N | None | None | Gelding; Claimer |
2009 | 14 | Desert Party | N | N | G3 in UAE | None | Stands in NY |
2009 | 15 | Mr. Hot Stuff | N | N | None | None | Gelding; Now runs jumps |
2009 | 16 | Atomic Rain | N | N | None | None | Gelding; listed stakes winner |
2009 | 17 | Nowhere to Hide | N | N | None | None | Gelding; AOC Horse |
2009 | 18 | Friesan Fire | N | N | None | None | Listed Stakes Winner |
2009 | 19 | Flying Private | N | N | None | None | Low level stakes horse |
2008 | 1 | Big Brown | N | N | G1-Haskell | None | Stands at Three Chimneys |
2008 | 2 | Eight Belles | doesn't count; don't wanna talk about it | ||||
2008 | 3 | Denis of Cork | N | N | None | None | Retired |
2008 | 4 | Tale of Ekati | N | N | G1-Cigar Mile | None | Stands at Darby Dan |
2008 | 5 | Recapturetheglory | N | N | None | None | Listed Stakes Winner |
2008 | 6 | Colonel John | Y | Y | G1-Travers | 2008/9 BC Classic (6th/5th) | Stands at WinStar |
2008 | 7 | Anak Nakal | N | N | G2-PA Derby | None | Ran in Dubai World Cup |
2008 | 8 | Pyro | Y | Y | G1-Forego | 2008/9 BC Dirt Mile (6th/10th) | Very nice miler; Standing at Darley JPN |
2008 | 9 | Cowboy Cal | N | Y | G2-Oak Tree Mile | 2009 BC Mile (10th) | Standing at Pin Oak |
2008 | 10 | Z Fortune | N | N | None | None | AOC runner by end of career |
2008 | 11 | Smooth Air | Y | Y | G2-OH Derby | 2008 BC Classic (7th) | Nice Multiple GSW |
2008 | 12 | Visionaire | N | N | G1-King's Bishop | None | Stands in South Africa |
2008 | 13 | Court Vision | N | Y | G1-Shadwell Turf Mile | 2011 BC Mile (1st) | Great turf Miler; Stands in Canada |
2008 | 14 | Z Humor | N | N | None | None | Listed Stakes Winner |
2008 | 15 | Cool Coal Man | N | Y | None | 2010 BC Dirt Mile (10th) | Listed Stakes Winner |
2008 | 16 | Bob Black Jack | N | N | G1-Malibu | None | Good GSW post-Derby |
2008 | 17 | Gayego | N | Y | G1-Ancient Title | 2009 BC Sprint (4th) 2010 BC Dirt Mile (3rd) |
Stands in Canada |
2008 | 18 | Big Truck | N | N | None | None | Two year layoff between 2008 and 2010 |
2008 | 19 | Adriano | N | N | G3-Kent | None | Good GSW post-Derby |
2008 | 20 | Monba | N | N | None | None | Also ran stakes horse post-Derby |
2007 | 1 | Street Sense | Y | Y | G1-Travers | 2007 BC Classic (4th) | Standing At Darley JPN |
2007 | 2 | Hard Spun | Y | Y | G1-King's Bishop | 2007 BC Classic (2nd) | Standing at Darley KY |
2007 | 3 | Curlin | Y | Y | G1-Jockey Club Gold Cup | 2007/8 BC Classic (1st/4th) | World champ; Standing at Lane's End |
2007 | 4 | Imawildandcrazyguy | N | N | None | None | Gelding; listed stakes winner |
2007 | 5 | Sedgefield | N | N | None | None | AOC horse |
2007 | 6 | Circular Quay | N | N | G2-New Orleans | None | Standing in Florida |
2007 | 7 | Tiago | Y | Y | G1-Goodwood | 2007/8 BC Classic (5th/3rd) | Standing at Adena Springs |
2007 | 8 | Any Given Saturday | Y | Y | G1-Haskell | 2007 BC Classic (6th) | Standing at Darley KY |
2007 | 9 | Sam P. | N | N | None | None | AOC horse |
2007 | 10 | Nobiz Like Shobiz | N | N | G2-Jamaica | None | Standing at Crestwood |
2007 | 11 | Dominican | N | N | None | None | Stakes Also ran |
2007 | 12 | Zanjero | N | N | G2-Indiana Derby | None | Standing at Millennium Farms in KY |
2007 | 13 | Great Hunter | N | N | None | None | Stakes Also ran; Standing in Venezuela |
2007 | 14 | Liquidity | N | N | None | None | Stakes Also ran |
2007 | 15 | Bwana Bull | N | N | None | None | Stakes Also ran |
2007 | 16 | Storm in May | N | N | None | None | Stakes Also ran |
2007 | 17 | Teuflesberg | N | N | G2-Woody Stephens | None | Sire of Trinniberg; Stands in NY |
2007 | 18 | Scat Daddy | N | N | None | None | Retired Post-Derby; Standing at Ashford Stud |
2007 | 19 | Stormello | N | N | None | None | Only ran one race post-Derby; |
2007 | 20 | Cowtown Cat | N | N | None | None | Stakes Also ran |