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2012 Kentucky Derby: U.K./U.S. Odds Comparisons

Daddy Long Legs
Daddy Long Legs

If you are wondering how those living and wagering outside of the United States are viewing the upcoming 2012 Kentucky Derby, wonder no more! The Racing Post has a summary of ante-post wagering for the Derby from a selection of betting houses in the UK. Below are the high and low odds for each of the top Derby contenders, along with their final odds in Pool 3 of the 2012 Kentucky Derby Future Wager.

Horse Low High KDFW #3
Bodemeister 7/2 9/2 22/1
Union Rags 9/2 5/1 9/2
Dullahan 7/1 8/1 23/1
Gemologist 7/1 8/1 12/1
Take Charge Indy 10/1 14/1 15/1
Creative Cause 11/1 12/1 8/1
I'll Have Another 10/1 12/1 21/1
Alpha 12/1 14/1 21/1
Hansen 14/1 16/1 8/1
Daddy Long Legs 14/1 20/1 6/1*
Daddy Nose Best 14/1 20/1 20/1
Done Talking 20/1 25/1 6/1*
El Padrino 16/1 20/1 24/1
Went The Day Well 20/1 20/1 19/1
Castaway 20/1 50/1 6/1*
Liaison 33/1 50/1 49/1
Mark Valeski 25/1 33/1 34/1
Sabercat 33/1 33/1 45/1
Trinniberg 25/1 40/1 6/1*
Prospective 33/1 40/1 42/1
Currency Swap 33/1 50/1 6/1*
Rousing Sermon 33/1 50/1 6/1*
Optimizer 25/1 40/1 22/1
* Field

A few thoughts on these odds:

  • If you got a piece of Bodemeister in Pool 3 at 22/1 you got to be feeling really good right about now; there is no chance in hell that he'll go off at odds that high at Churchill Downs.
  • Dullahan at 23/1 in Pool 3 - another fantastic value given what his odds will be on Derby day.
  • Bodemeister and Union Rags are dueling for favorite status in the U.K. betting markets, but in the U.S., everyone seems to think Union Rags will go to post as the favorite.
  • Where do we think Gemologist will end up by post time? 7/1 or 8/1 would be fairly nice on a horse that hasn't faced defeat in his brief career.
  • Hansen is receiving very little respect in the U.K., as his odds are rougly double what they were in Pool 3. If I was drafting a personal odds line for the Derby, I'd probably end up somewhere around 10/1, which is right in the middle of the U.K. and the Future Wagers prices.
  • Alpha is available at a nice price on each side of the Atlantic. 12/1? 14/1? 21/1? Pretty good prices for a horse that had a rough trip in the Wood and has a right to move forward in Kentucky.
  • Have we seen a Santa Anita Derby winner get less respect than I'll Have Another? Perhaps it's not so much a lack of respect as it is a reflection of the depth of this year's Derby class. Overall, this is a pretty deep group, especially when looking at one through ten.