Kentucky Derby Pace: 1980 - 2011

Note: it's opening weekend at Belmont and Churchill Downs. I'll have a Churchill opening night thread up a little later this afternoon.

One of the things that makes the Kentucky Derby such a grueling race for still-developing three-year-old horses, is the typically fast pace. The pace of the Derby, with a few exceptions (including 2011), is usually quite fast (see charts below). The opening quarter almost always comes in under 23 seconds. The half-mile average over the last 30+ years is 46.56, with a median of 46.49. Think about that: over half of the last 30 Kentucky Derbies have seen a half-mile fraction of under 46.49 seconds and eight times the half-mile was run in under 46 seconds.

The internal splits tell the same story of a fast beginning and a slower finish. (see more charts below!) While quick opening fractions and slower final splits is a hallmark of racing on dirt, the difference in the Derby from the beginning of the race to the end is quite revealing. The average opening internal fractions at the Kentucky Derby over the last 30+ years are 22.96 and 23.59. (The median opening quarter is 22.99, meaning half of all Derbies since 1980 have seen an opening split under 23 seconds, including all but three since 2000.) The last two internal spits - the fourth and fifth quarter miles - come in at 25.56 and 25.59 (with similar medians), an almost 2.5 second difference from the opening quarter to the final quarter.

What's this all mean? Well, nothing we didn't already know: the Kentucky Derby typically has a fast, grueling pace that cooks all but the fittest horses. Since 1980, only five horses that were leading after six furlongs ended up winning the Derby - War Emblem (2002), Go for Gin (1994), Winning Colors (1988), Spend a Buck (1985), and Sunny's Halo (1983).

Below are charts summarizing the splits, internal splits, winner's running style, pace finish and track condition since 1980. Any and all errors are mine.

Note: I made a small update to the tables after realizing that my spreadsheet wasn't calculating a couple of cells properly. The change is minor in it's impact on the average and median splits.

Kentucky Derby Splits Since 1980

Kentucky Derby Internal Splits Since 1980

Kentucky Derby Average and Median Splits/Internal Splits Since 1980

Kentucky Derby Winners, Running Style, Track Condition, and Pace Finish Since 1980