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Kentucky Derby: The Oaks/Derby Double Since 2000

LOUISVILLE, KY - MAY 1st:  Calvin Borel rides Super Saver to the finish line for the win in the 136th running of the Kentucky Derby on May 1, 2010 in Louisville, Kentucky.  (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
LOUISVILLE, KY - MAY 1st: Calvin Borel rides Super Saver to the finish line for the win in the 136th running of the Kentucky Derby on May 1, 2010 in Louisville, Kentucky. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
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In the Kentucky Derby Payouts post below, one of our esteemed readers (Swale) asked about the payouts for the Oaks/Derby Double over the last ten years. Fortunately, I have that data ready and willing to share with the greater public, along with the payouts from the Woodford Turf Classic/Derby Double. I've also included in the data the odds on the winners of each leg of the two race sequence.

A note on the payouts:

Churchill Downs did not offer an Oaks/Derby Double in 2000, (or at least there wasn't a payout reported on the result chart). Additionally, Churchill didn't offer a Woodford/Derby Double in 2001.

Below are a couple of difference charts summarizing the payouts for the Oaks/Derby Double and the Woodford Turf/Derby Double since 2000, the odds of the winners in each leg, and a comparison of the Double payout with the parlay.

Year $2 Oaks/Derby Leg 1 Leg 2
2011 $345.60 6.30 20.90
2010 $56.60 1.30 8.00
2009 $237.40 0.30 50.60
2008 $37.80 3.40 2.40
2007 $23.80 1.50 4.90
2006 $890.20 47.10 6.10
2005 $595.20 4.60 50.30
2004 $60.20 2.30 4.10
2003 $421.80 18.20 12.80
2002 $1,395.40 20.00 20.50
2001 $79.20 3.30 10.50
2000
4.90 2.30
Median $237.40 4.00 9.25








Year $2 Turf/Derby Leg 1 Leg 2
2011 $393.00 7.50 20.90
2010 $294.80 8.80 8.00
2009 $632.40 1.80 50.60
2008 $24.80 2.20 2.40
2007 $87.00 8.40 4.90
2006 $60.40 3.50 6.10
2005 $1,973.40 17.80 50.30
2004 $103.60 4.80 4.10
2003 $425.90 24.30 12.80
2002 $64.00 1.60 20.50
2001
6.30 10.50
2000 $51.00 5.10 2.30
Median $103.60 5.70 9.25


Some thoughts on these payouts:

  • The lowest Oaks/Derby payout since 2000 came during the Rags to Riches/Street Sense year of 2007. Both horses went off as the betting favorites and paid $23.80. It didn't get a whole lot better in 2008 when Big Brown's 5/2 odds resulted in a $37.80 payout with Proud Spell.
  • The Woodford/Derby Double also has some decent payouts over the last decade, but there's also a few head-scratchers, namely the $87.00 for 8/1 over 5/1 in 2007 (Street Sense won as the 5/1 favorite), while a 5/1 and 4/1 paid $103.60 in 2004. This comparison leads to an interesting question: is it better to play the Double or to simply parlay the win bet into the next race?

Below is a comparison of the Double payouts and the two race parlay for each wager.couple takeaways from the comparisons:

Year $2 Oaks/Derby $2 Parlay +/-
2011 $345.60 $319.74 $25.86
2010 $56.60 $41.40 $15.20
2009 $237.40 $134.16 $103.24
2008 $37.80 $29.92 $7.88
2007 $23.80 $29.50 -$5.70
2006 $890.20 $683.02 $207.18
2005 $595.20 $574.56 $20.64
2004 $60.20 $33.66 $26.54
2003 $421.80 $529.92 -$108.12
2002 $1,395.40 $903.00 $492.40
2001 $79.20 $98.90 -$19.70
2000
Median $237.40 $134.16 $103.24
Year $2 Turf/Derby $2 Parlay +/-
2011 $393.00 $372.30 $20.70
2010 $294.80 $176.40 $118.40
2009 $632.40 $288.96 $343.44
2008 $24.80 $21.76 $3.04
2007 $87.00 $110.92 -$23.92
2006 $60.40 $63.90 -$3.50
2005 $1,973.40 $1,928.88 $44.52
2004 $103.60 $59.16 $44.44
2003 $425.90 $698.28 -$272.38
2002 $64.00 $111.80 -$47.80
2001 $167.90
2000 $51.00 $40.26 $10.74
Median $103.60 $139.85 -$36.25


Note: the final "=/-" column on the bottom line is not the median difference, but the sum of the difference.

The Oaks/Derby Double typically pays better than parlay, while the Woodford/Derby Double does not. If you would have played a $2 Oaks/Derby Double (and hit it) every year since 2000, you'd have $103.24 more in your wallet than if you'd successfully parlayed the winning each year. However, that same action with the Woodford/Derby Double would have left you #36.25 in the hold when compared to what you would have won with the parlay. Just something to think about.

The Woodford/Derby Double is pretty hit and miss. Since 2000, the parlay paid better than the Double seven times, including a couple of huge payouts