Kentucky Derby: The Oaks/Derby Double Since 2000

In the Kentucky Derby Payouts post below, one of our esteemed readers (Swale) asked about the payouts for the Oaks/Derby Double over the last ten years. Fortunately, I have that data ready and willing to share with the greater public, along with the payouts from the Woodford Turf Classic/Derby Double. I've also included in the data the odds on the winners of each leg of the two race sequence.

A note on the payouts:

Churchill Downs did not offer an Oaks/Derby Double in 2000, (or at least there wasn't a payout reported on the result chart). Additionally, Churchill didn't offer a Woodford/Derby Double in 2001.

Below are a couple of difference charts summarizing the payouts for the Oaks/Derby Double and the Woodford Turf/Derby Double since 2000, the odds of the winners in each leg, and a comparison of the Double payout with the parlay.

Some thoughts on these payouts:

• The lowest Oaks/Derby payout since 2000 came during the Rags to Riches/Street Sense year of 2007. Both horses went off as the betting favorites and paid $23.80. It didn't get a whole lot better in 2008 when Big Brown's 5/2 odds resulted in a $37.80 payout with Proud Spell.
• The Woodford/Derby Double also has some decent payouts over the last decade, but there's also a few head-scratchers, namely the $87.00 for 8/1 over 5/1 in 2007 (Street Sense won as the 5/1 favorite), while a 5/1 and 4/1 paid $103.60 in 2004. This comparison leads to an interesting question: is it better to play the Double or to simply parlay the win bet into the next race?

Below is a comparison of the Double payouts and the two race parlay for each wager.couple takeaways from the comparisons:

Note: the final "=/-" column on the bottom line is not the median difference, but the sum of the difference.

The Oaks/Derby Double typically pays better than parlay, while the Woodford/Derby Double does not. If you would have played a $2 Oaks/Derby Double (and hit it) every year since 2000, you'd have $103.24 more in your wallet than if you'd successfully parlayed the winning each year. However, that same action with the Woodford/Derby Double would have left you #36.25 in the hold when compared to what you would have won with the parlay. Just something to think about.

The Woodford/Derby Double is pretty hit and miss. Since 2000, the parlay paid better than the Double seven times, including a couple of huge payouts