Alpha: Things That Make You Go "Hmm"

A comparison of Alpha's New York vs. non-New York races by finishing position and Beyer Speed Figures. Races listed in chronological order (oldest first):

I have no explanation for the discrepancy between Alpha's New York and non-New York races. Prior to yesterday, I chalked it up to Alpha just not taking to the Churchill Downs track. After his flop in the Penn Derby (and I really don't have another word for it)... well, I just don't know.

Now, to be fair, we're talking about a limited sample of races and the two Churchill races came against big fields where it's not unusual for a horse to toss in a clunker. The Parx race yesterday - perhaps he just hated Parx, I don't know. But at this point, if you're thinking about the Breeders' Cup Classic, would anyone take Alpha a odds under 10/1, or maybe even 20/1, given his abysmal record outside of New York? He's a toss for me at this point.