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Kentucky Derby 2013: The Road to Louisville - Part III

As January comes to a close, it's a good time to take a snap shot of where we stand on the road to the 2013 Kentucky Derby.


First things first, I've updated (somewhat) the Google Drive file containing the top four finishers in the official Derby preps and some of the non-official races. I still need to update some of the beaten lengths data but I'll get around to it eventually.

2013 Road to the Kentucky Derby

Here is some reference data that I've pulled out of the Google Drive document with regards to the published figures for the winners of Derby preps so far. And I suppose I should delineate between the "official" Derby preps, or races that have points attached to them, and the "unofficial" preps, which under my definition is pretty much any race at a mile or greater that I've included on the linked spreadsheet.

The list of figures below includes both the official and unofficial races for 2yo and 3yos. I don't have figures for every race, so this is simply a ranking of the winner's figures that are included in the spreadsheet. Additionally, a top non-winning performance, i.e. a runner-up that runs a better figures than many of the winners - like Shanghai Bobby in last week's Holy Bull - aren't yet included. I'm in the process of putting that analysis together in the next few weeks.

A quick rundown of the references:

All right, so here where we stand in terms of Top 3 performances from a purely figure perspective if we are looking just at the winners:

Beyer Fig. Race
Itsmyluckyday 104 Holy Bull
Overanalyze 99 Remsen
Itsmyluckyday 95 Gulfstream Park Derby
Brisnet Fig. Race
Itsmyluckday 111 Gulfstream Park Derby
Itsmyluckday 106 Holy Bull
Overanalyze 106 Remsen
Shanghai Bobby 99 Champagne
Equibase Fig. Race
Overanalyze 116 Remsen
Itsmyluckyday 109 Holy Bull
Itsmyluckyday 107 Gulfstream Park Derby
Performance Figures Fig. Race
Overanalyze -59 Remsen
Itsmyluckyday -50 Holy Bull
Oxbow -49 Lecomte
Racing Post Rating Fig. Race
Shanghai Bobby 118 Champagne
Shanghai Bobby 117 BC Juvenile
Violence 117 CashCall Futurity
Itsmyluckyday 116 Holy Bull

The races are rated fairly consistently across all of the figure makers, with the exception of the Racing Post Rating, which are included more as an FYI rather than a heavily relied upon number. The RPR's do a good job with European races and races on the turf, but personally they don't carry a ton of weight with me when we start talking about dirt races simply due to the inherent differences in American dirt racing and European grass racing. Plus, an RPR isn't a speed rating as much as it's a weight/handicap rating. But, I think they are still interesting to compare in terms of relative ranking of individual performances.

Anyway, beyond the RPR's all the systems agree that the Remsen and the Holy Bull are two of the best winning performances from this 3yo crop (so far). The Gulfstream Park Derby rates highly on Beyer, Bris and Equibase, but not as highly on the Performance Figure scale. Additionally, Equibase the Chef de Race Performance Figure is the only system to rate Oxbow's Lecomte win as one of the top three winning performances from this group of selected races.

And finally, I've put together a chart that breaks down each prep by circuit, along with the corresponding points for each race. This provides a bit of a high level view of where the point opportunities are in each region of the country over the next three months.

Arkansas 1st Pts 2nd Pts 3rd Pts 4th Pts
Smarty Jones Will Take Charge 10 Texas Bling 4 Always in a Tiz 2 Stormy Holiday 1
Southwest 10 4 2 1
Rebel 50 20 10 5
Arkansas Derby 100 40 20 10
California 1st Pts 2nd Pts 3rd Pts 4th Pts
Front Runner Power Broker 10 Know More 4 Capo Bastone 2 Carving 1
BC Juvenile Shanghai Bobby 10 He's Had Enough 4 Capo Bastone 2 Fortify 1
CashCall Futurity Violence 10 Fury Kapcori 4 Den's Legacy 2 Oxbow 1
Sham Goldencents 10 Den's Legacy 4 Manando 2 Dry Summer 1
Robert B. Lewis 10 4 2 1
El Camino Real 10 4 2 1
San Felipe 50 20 10 5
Santa Anita Derby 100 40 20 10
England 1st Pts 2nd Pts 3rd Pts 4th Pts
Royal Lodge Steeler (IRE) 10 Artigiano 4 Al Waab (IRE) 2 Birdman (IRE) 1
Florida 1st Pts 2nd Pts 3rd Pts 4th Pts
Holy Bull Itsmyluckyday 10 Shanghai Bobby 4 Clearly Now 2 Joshua'sComprise 1
Sam F. Davis 10 4 2 1
Fountain of Youth 50 20 10 5
Tampa Bay Derby 50 20 10 5
Florida Derby 100 40 20 10
Kentucky 1st Pts 2nd Pts 3rd Pts 4th Pts
Ky. Jockey Club Uncaptured 10 Positively 4 Overanalyze 2 Strike the Note 1
Spiral 50 20 10 5
Blue Grass 100 40 20 10
Lexington 20 8 4 2
Derby Trial 20 8 4 2
Louisiana 1st Pts 2nd Pts 3rd Pts 4th Pts
Delat Downs Jackpt Goldencents 10 Bern Identity 4 Mylute 2 Hightail 1
Lecomte Oxbow 10 Golden Soul 4 Fear the Kitten 2 Ive Struck a Nerve 1
Risen Star 50 20 10 5
Louisiana Derby 100 40 20 10
New Mexico 1st Pts 2nd Pts 3rd Pts 4th Pts
Sunland Derby 50 20 10 5
New York 1st Pts 2nd Pts 3rd Pts 4th Pts
Champagne Shanghai Bobby 10 Goldencents 4 Fortify 2 Archwarrior 1
Remsen Overanalyze 10 NormandyInvasion 4 Delhomme 2 QunziemeMonrque 1
Withers 10 4 2 1
Gotham 50 20 10 5
Wood Memorial 100 40 20 10
Ontario 1st Pts 2nd Pts 3rd Pts 4th Pts
Grey River Seven 10 Tesseron 4 Indiano Jones 2 Five Iron 1
United Arab Emirates 1st Pts 2nd Pts 3rd Pts 4th Pts
UAE Derby 100 40 20 10