2014 Kentucky Derby Contenders: Vicar's in Trouble

Vicar's in Trouble

Trainer: Michael Maker
Owner: Ken & Sarah Ramsey
Jockey: Rosie Napravnik
Sire: Into Mischief
Dam: Vibrant (Vicar)
Lifetime Record: 5-3-0-2
Lifetime Earnings: $788,900

Future Wager Odds: Pool 1 - 4/5 (Field) ; Pool 2 - 43/1; Pool 3 - 52/1; Pool 4 - 36/1

Notable Races: G2-Louisiana Derby (1^st); G2-Remsen Stakes (3^rd); G3-Lecomte Stakes (1^st)

The Good

This colt's only run five times in his career and all five were quality efforts in terms of finishing position. Vicar's in Trouble was clearly the best horse in both his Louisiana Derby and Lecomte victories, and ran a credible, although well beaten, third in the Risen Star when he failed to grab the lead in the early stages. At a minimum, it's hard not to like his good run of form, however...

The (maybe) Bad

It's hard not be concerned with how a fast pace will impact Vicar's in Trouble's chances in the Derby. When he's been able to secure the early lead, this colt's run quality races. When he hasn't, he's struggled. Vicar's in Trouble is unlikely to inherit and easy lead in the Derby and it's hard not to see that kind of pace scenario compromising his chances.

I suppose the Devil's advocate would point out that Vicar's in Trouble dropped well back of the lead in the Risen Star yet moved within a length of the leaders before fading five and a half lengths back at the wire. You could make the argument that his finish in that race was more to do with the wide draw and the loss of ground rather than the colt failing to make the lead. And, truthfully, I think that's where you need to get to in your handicapping to believe this colt has a legitimate shot to win the Derby: that he's a horse that can sit off the lead but just got a bad trip in the Risen Star.

If Vicar's in Trouble were to win the Kentucky Derby I think he's going to have to employ a running style more in line with his Risen Star effort as opposed to the Louisiana Derby or Lecomte.