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I have a longer piece over at SBNation.com breaking down parts of yesterday's Kentucky Derby, but I'll re-post two charts from that piece over here for the "short and sweet" version. Visually or on paper, Orb was simply the best colt on the track yesterday. The Trakus data from the race paints two, very clear pictures:
1) Any horse near the lead through the first half mile spit the bit badly in the final half mile (with the exception of one colt - Oxbow), and
2) Orb was miles the best.
Below are the full Trakus fractions and internal splits, along with the Trakus ground loss data:
Horse | Finish | 1/4 | 1/2 | 3/4 | Mile | Final | 1/4 | 1/2 | 3/4 | Mile | Final |
Orb | 1st | 23.74 | 47.66 | 71.64 | 96.78 | 122.66 | 23.74 | 23.92 | 23.98 | 25.14 | 25.88 |
Golden Soul | 2nd | 23.62 | 47.54 | 71.55 | 96.98 | 123.09 | 23.62 | 23.92 | 24.01 | 25.43 | 26.11 |
Revolutionary | 3rd | 23.93 | 47.77 | 71.81 | 97.20 | 123.29 | 23.93 | 23.84 | 24.04 | 25.39 | 26.09 |
Normandy Invasion | 4th | 23.33 | 46.27 | 70.31 | 96.02 | 123.32 | 23.33 | 22.94 | 24.04 | 25.71 | 27.30 |
Mylute | 5th | 24.02 | 47.82 | 71.63 | 97.17 | 123.35 | 24.02 | 23.80 | 23.81 | 25.54 | 26.18 |
Oxbow | 6th | 22.83 | 45.91 | 70.01 | 96.13 | 124.41 | 22.83 | 23.08 | 24.10 | 26.12 | 28.28 |
Lines of Battle | 7th | 23.52 | 47.38 | 71.54 | 97.39 | 124.69 | 23.52 | 23.86 | 24.16 | 25.85 | 27.30 |
Will Take Charge | 8th | 23.32 | 46.87 | 71.17 | 96.77 | 124.82 | 23.32 | 23.55 | 24.30 | 25.60 | 28.05 |
Charming Kitten | 9th | 23.38 | 46.98 | 70.99 | 97.23 | 125.05 | 23.38 | 23.60 | 24.01 | 26.24 | 27.82 |
Giant Finish | 10th | 23.18 | 46.49 | 71.00 | 97.52 | 125.08 | 23.18 | 23.31 | 24.51 | 26.52 | 27.56 |
Overanalyze | 11th | 23.53 | 47.31 | 71.46 | 97.95 | 125.10 | 23.53 | 23.78 | 24.15 | 26.49 | 27.15 |
Palace Malice | 12th | 22.57 | 45.26 | 69.58 | 96.25 | 125.11 | 22.57 | 22.69 | 24.32 | 26.67 | 28.86 |
Java's War | 13th | 24.57 | 48.08 | 71.84 | 97.69 | 125.40 | 24.57 | 23.51 | 23.76 | 25.85 | 27.71 |
Verrazano | 14th | 22.77 | 45.65 | 70.07 | 96.47 | 125.45 | 22.77 | 22.88 | 24.42 | 26.40 | 28.98 |
Itsmyluckyday | 15th | 22.85 | 46.11 | 70.61 | 97.10 | 126.53 | 22.85 | 23.26 | 24.50 | 26.49 | 29.43 |
Frac Daddy | 16th | 23.13 | 46.91 | 71.29 | 98.25 | 126.93 | 23.13 | 23.78 | 24.38 | 26.96 | 28.68 |
Goldencents | 17th | 22.60 | 45.80 | 70.30 | 97.80 | 131.22 | 22.60 | 23.20 | 24.50 | 27.50 | 33.42 |
Vyjack | 18th | 22.77 | 45.68 | 70.35 | 98.43 | 131.77 | 22.77 | 22.91 | 24.67 | 28.08 | 33.34 |
Falling Sky | 19th | 22.71 | 46.37 | 71.10 | 98.40 | 131.85 | 22.71 | 23.66 | 24.73 | 27.30 | 33.45 |
Horse | Finish | Feet | +/- |
Orb | 1st | 6,721 | |
Golden Soul | 2nd | 6,641 | 80 |
Revolutionary | 3rd | 6,637 | 84 |
Normandy Invasion | 4th | 6,680 | 41 |
Mylute | 5th | 6,701 | 20 |
Oxbow | 6th | 6,645 | 76 |
Lines of Battle | 7th | 6,677 | 44 |
Will Take Charge | 8th | 6,690 | 31 |
Charming Kitten | 9th | 6,661 | 60 |
Giant Finish | 10th | 6,682 | 39 |
Overanalyze | 11th | 6,670 | 51 |
Palace Malice | 12th | 6,667 | 54 |
Java's War | 13th | 6,702 | 19 |
Verrazano | 14th | 6,690 | 31 |
Itsmyluckyday | 15th | 6,686 | 35 |
Frac Daddy | 16th | 6,733 | -12 |
Goldencents | 17th | 6,672 | 49 |
Vyjack | 18th | 6,739 | -18 |
Falling Sky | 19th | 6,706 | 15 |