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UPDATE: Taking a bit more time I realized I had the winners data back to 1995, so I've updated the chart with those horses. Pre-1995 I've got nothing. Oddly enough, the pattern remained pretty much the same for the additional entries - they've either got just a maiden win to their name or they've won a stakes race. Not a lot of in between, which is a bit strange. You'd think we'd see some horses with an allowance win as their most recent victory by mid-January, but instead it's a more feast-or-famine type of situation.
So, I'm reading through the latest Wynn Las Vegas Kentucky Derby future book and lifetime PPs (post coming later) when I started thinking to myself, "Matt, do you ever wonder what the accomplishments were for the last decade of winners of the Kentucky Derby as of mid-January in their three-year-old year?" Why, yes I do, inner thoughts.
Many people, including myself, like to look for a Derby winner as early as we can. Hell, it makes any future bet a lot more exciting if you can pick of Derby winner in January. (And, you know, gives you something to brag about.) But typically, I handicap my Derby futures with too much of an eye towards what I think horses should have accomplished and not what is typical for a Derby winner in January.
Being the research nerd that I am, I dove into the last twelve years of Kentucky Derby winner's past performances to come up with the following chart that highlights the last win of each as of mid-January, along with their career record. Some of these horses ran well in stakes races but didn't win (or ran really, really poorly); I'm just highlighting their last race won as of mid-January and their overall record.
Make of this what you will.
*I put this chart together rather quickly...while enjoying a cold beverage, so, you know, any and all errors are mine and will be corrected in due time.
| Year | Derby Winner | Last Win as of mid-January | Record |
| 2013 | Orb | MdSpWt | 4-1-0-0 |
| 2012 | I'll Have Another | MdSpWt | 3-1-1-0 |
| 2011 | Animal Kingdom | MdSpWt | 2-1-1-0 |
| 2010 | Super Saver | G2-KY JC | 4-2-1-0 |
| 2009 | Mine That Bird | G3-Grey | 5-4-0-0 |
| 2008 | Big Brown | MdSpWt | 1-1-0-0 |
| 2007 | Street Sense | G1-BC Juvenile | 5-2-0-2 |
| 2006 | Barbaro | G2-Tropical Park Derby (T) | 3-3-0-0 |
| 2005 | Giacomo | MdSpWt | 4-1-1-1 |
| 2004 | Smarty Jones | Count Fleet | 3-3-0-0 |
| 2003 | Funny Cide* | Sleepy Hollow | 3-3-0-0 |
| 2002 | War Emblem** | MdSpWt | 3-2-0-0 |
| 2001 | Monarchos | MdSpWt | 3-1-0-0 |
| 2000 | Fusaichi Pegasus | MdSpWt | 2-1-1-0 |
| 1999 | Charismatic | $62.5 MdClm | 8-1-0-0 |
| 1998 | Real Quiet*** | G1-Hollywood Futurity | 8-2-0-5 |
| 1997 | Silver Charm | D1-Del Mar Futurity | 3-2-1-0 |
| 1996 | Grindstone | MdSpWt | 2-1-0-0 |
| 1995 | Thunder Gulch | G2-Remsen | 6-2-2-1 |
*Funny Cide finished 5th in the Holy Bull on Jan. 18th.
**War Emblem finished 5th in the Lecomte on Jan. 26th.
***Real Quiet won the Golden Gate Derby on Jan. 18th.
Two things stand out from me after looking at that chart, which, admittedly, encompasses a very small sample size. One, if a horse hasn't broken his maiden by mid-January of his three-year-old season, he's highly unlikely to find himself in the Churchill Downs winner's circle on the first Saturday in May. Second, winning a stakes race by January is about as important as winning a maiden race. In other words, if a horse has won just a single race, he's like the guy at the World Series of Poker with a chip and a chair.
With the updated data back to 1995, here's the minimum we can say about Derby winners in mid-January:
Of the last 19 horses to win the Kentucky Derby, 10 of them only had a maiden win to their name as of mid-January (one of which was a maiden claiming victory (Charismatic)). Seven had a Graded Stakes race as their most recent victory, while two had won an ungraded stakes.
Oh, and one more thought: Mine That Bird. I've never ripped up so many Derby day tickets in my life.
